Daily Desk Views
The desk’s live read per asset, refreshed each sessionPayrolls cracked, but the 10 year barely cared
September payrolls rose just 29,000 and October Fed hike odds collapsed, yet the US 10 year finished the week near 5.3%, the dollar broke above 102 and gold gave back its whole payroll rally. France has put a risk premium into the euro, and this week the 10 and 30 year Treasury auctions, the FOMC minutes and Waller test whether the long end is trading something bigger than the Fed. The calendar, three scenarios and the KenMacro macro map are inside.
Read the Week Ahead →Framework guides: how the dollar and real yields move gold and why the dollar and bond yields can split.
All Macro Insights
Every reactive macro read the desk has shipped, sorted by latest. Filter by topic in the left rail, search by name above, or page through the full archive below.
Inside The Read
The market moves. We work out why.
Weekly macro breakdowns from Ken’s desk, connecting economic data, central banks, yields and global flows to the markets you actually trade. Every episode comes with a companion desk note so you can apply the same process yourself.
- Data
- Expectations
- Rate pricing
- Yields
- Money
- Market
Watch the market read. Keep the desk notes.
Jackson Hole Just Changed the Gold & Dollar Trade
Warsh did not argue for a hike. He removed the reason to wait.
Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed chair never asked for a rate hike. It took away the reasons to wait: financial conditions were not restrictive, the labour market was stable and inflation was still the priority. September hike pricing jumped from about a third to more than half in one session, the 2 year yield moved first, the dollar had its biggest up day of the month and gold fell more than 3%. Episode 1 shows why expectations, not headlines, moved the trade.
- Fed
- Jackson Hole
- US 2Y
- Dollar
- Gold
Keep the read beside your desk
Download the Episode 1 Companion Desk Note
The charts, decision tree, market framework and key questions from this episode in one clean PDF.
NFP Just FLIPPED the Gold & Dollar Trade
Strong jobs did not mean a hike. They gave the Fed room to hike.
Jackson Hole set one view. Then ADP undershot, Governor Waller spelled out when he would consider a hike, and August payrolls came in far above consensus with July revised from a loss into a gain. A strong labour market did not make a hike automatic. It gave the Fed room to hike if inflation required it, which handed the decision to PPI and CPI. Episode 2 shows why a macro view has to change when the information does, and how to build the decision tree before the data lands.
- NFP
- ADP
- Fed
- Dollar
- Gold
Keep the read beside your desk
Download the Episode 2 Companion Desk Note
The charts, decision tree, market framework and key questions from this episode in one clean PDF.
The Fed, Oil & Yen Are About to COLLIDE
Hawkish data, and the dollar still would not follow. The reaction is the trade.
Inflation gave the Fed another reason to tighten, but the dollar and gold did not respond as cleanly as expected. Meanwhile oil moved above $100, geopolitical risk spread across Middle Eastern energy routes and the Japanese yen kept strengthening. Episode 3 connects all of it and explains why a yen carry unwind could become a global liquidity story.
- CPI
- Fed
- Oil
- USD/JPY
- Carry trade
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Download the Episode 3 Companion Desk Note
The charts, decision tree, market framework and key questions from this episode in one clean PDF.
The Fed HIKED. Gold, Oil & the Yen Just Changed EVERYTHING
The Fed hiked. Japan hiked. The yen fell. The decision was not the trade.
The Fed raised rates to 3.75% to 4.00% and the Bank of Japan lifted its rate to 1.25%, yet the yen weakened. Episode 4 shows why an expected hike can leave a currency weaker, what the 2 year, real yields and the dollar did next, why gold rallied anyway and then slipped, and why an attack on Saudi oil infrastructure is the bridge back to inflation.
- Fed
- BOJ
- USD/JPY
- Gold
- Oil
Keep the read beside your desk
Download the Episode 4 Companion Desk Note
The charts, decision tree, market framework and key questions from this episode in one clean PDF.