Labour held, so US CPI now decides the Fed trade for gold, the dollar and Treasury yields

August payrolls came in at 162,000 against a consensus of 56,000, above every forecast in the Reuters poll, and July was revised from a loss into a gain. The labour market did not crack, so inflation now carries the whole September decision. PPI and an ECB decision land on Thursday, CPI on Friday, and the Fed meets four days later with new projections. The desk view: the dollar finished the week lower than it started despite Friday's jump, the 2 year sits two basis points under its 2026 high, and gold closed on the level published here a week ago. The decision tree for both versions of CPI is inside.