Macro

Stagflation means high inflation, stagnant growth and rising unemployment at once. Here is the 1970s template, why central banks get trapped, and what tends to work.

Real yields are nominal yields minus expected inflation. Learn why rising real yields sink gold and lift the dollar, and how the desk reads TIPS and breakevens.

How markets price the geopolitical risk premium into oil, gold, the dollar and volatility, why premia build and fade, and how the desk trades it without chasing.

What is the Fed reaction function? How the Federal Reserve weighs inflation, jobs and financial conditions to set rates, and why traders model it to call the dollar.

The dollar smile theory explains why DXY strengthens in both severe risk-off and strong US-outperformance regimes, and only weakens in the soft middle.

The debasement trade explained by a macro desk: how deficits, debt and low real rates erode fiat, why investors rotate into gold and Bitcoin as hard assets, the honest differences between the two, and how the desk expresses the structural view.

Private credit explained by a macro desk: how non-bank funds lend directly to companies, why the market has boomed past 2 trillion dollars, and the opacity, leverage and interconnection risks the FSB and IMF flag as the next pocket of credit risk.

Is AI capex holding up the economy? A macro desk on the hyperscaler data-centre boom: how huge AI capital spending flatters growth, the bull case and the air-pocket risk, circular financing and the power bottleneck, and what the desk watches for the turn.

Central-bank policy divergence explained by a macro desk: why the gap between policy paths, not the level of rates, drives currency trends, how to read expected paths with rate futures, and how the desk builds its core FX trend trades around divergence.

How a strong dollar affects emerging markets, explained by a macro desk: the dollar-debt, capital-flow and commodity channels, why EM currencies and equities struggle when the dollar is strong, and why they do best when it is weak.

Monetary policy vs fiscal policy explained by a macro desk: who runs each, the tools, speed and lag, how the policy mix works, and why interest-rate differentials from monetary policy are the biggest driver of currency trends.

Recession vs depression explained by a macro desk: how a recession differs from a depression in severity, duration and unemployment, how the NBER actually dates recessions, and what each regime means for risk assets and safe havens.

How the budget deficit affects bond yields, explained by a macro desk: the supply channel, crowding out, the term premium and the bond vigilantes, plus the honest nuance that deficits and yields do not always move together.

Bull steepener vs bear steepener explained by a macro desk: the difference between a front-end-led and a long-end-led steepening, what each signals about the Fed, inflation and fiscal risk, and how the desk sets its gold, dollar and risk bias from the curve.

How tariffs affect the dollar, explained by a macro desk: the textbook case for a stronger dollar, why big tariff announcements have at times weakened it, and the growth, confidence and Fed-reaction channels that decide which way the dollar trades.

Fiscal dominance explained by a macro desk: what it means when government debt forces the central bank to accommodate, how it differs from monetary dominance, the market tells (term premium, gold, debasement), and why it is the regime lens of 2026.

The Treasury basis trade explained by a macro desk: how hedge funds arbitrage cash Treasuries against futures using repo leverage, why a forced unwind spikes yields and volatility, and what it means for the dollar and gold.

Eurodollar system explained for traders: what offshore dollars are, how the market funds the world, and why it drives global liquidity and FX moves.

Term premium explained by a macro desk: what the term premium is, how a long yield splits into expected short rates plus risk compensation, why it can be negative, and why a rising term premium matters.

Net liquidity explained by a macro desk: what the Fed net liquidity framework is, how the balance sheet minus the TGA minus reverse repo estimates the cash reaching markets, and the honest caveats.

Yield curve control explained by a macro desk: what YCC is, how it differs from QE, why the Bank of Japan used it, what it does to the yen and USDJPY, and what happens when it ends.

Currency wars explained by a macro desk: what competitive devaluation is, why countries weaken their own currencies to win exports, the historical episodes, and what a currency war does to the dollar, gold and risk.

Reserve currency status explained by a macro desk: what a reserve currency is, why the US dollar dominates global reserves, the exorbitant privilege it gives America, and why the erosion is slow not sudden.

The Taylor rule explained by a macro desk: the formula that prescribes a policy interest rate from inflation and the output gap, why it is a benchmark not a mechanical rule, and how traders use it to judge policy.

Currency pegs and fixed vs floating exchange rates explained by a macro desk: how a peg works, the impossible trinity, famous pegs and breaks, and why a pegged currency is a one-sided trade until it snaps.

Disinflation vs deflation explained by a macro desk: why slowing inflation and falling prices are completely different things, why deflation is so dangerous, the reflation case, and how markets trade each.

Cbr Forward Guidance June 2026: the short answer from the KenMacro desk. Forward guidance explained by a macro desk: what it is, why a central bank’s wo…

The gold standard and Bretton Woods explained by a macro desk: how gold-backed money worked, how the 1944 Bretton Woods system pegged the dollar to gold and the world to the dollar, why Nixon ended it in 1971, and why it still matters for gold today.

The neutral rate, R-star, explained by a macro desk: what the neutral rate of interest is, why it cannot be directly observed, how the Fed estimates it, and why a shift in R-star reprices the dollar, bonds and gold.

Soft landing vs hard landing explained by a macro desk: what each term means, the no-landing scenario, the historical examples, and how the dollar, gold, stocks and bonds behave under each outcome.

The petrodollar system explained by a macro desk: how oil came to be priced in dollars, the US-Saudi recycling arrangement of the 1970s, why the viral 2024 expiry story was a myth, and how de-dollarization is slowly chipping at it.