EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Presses 1.1475 Cap Into CPI
By Ken Chigbo · Founder, KenMacro · 18+ years in markets, London trading floor and institutional FX
Updated 2026-07-10 07:00 BST
Quick answer. The EUR/USD forecast into Friday 10 July has the euro at 1.1450, pressing the 1.1475 cap as the dollar extends a second pullback after hawkish FOMC minutes failed to hold. DXY sits at 100.90, the 10-year has eased to 4.54%, and the pair remains range-bound below 1.1500 into next week’s US CPI print on Tuesday 14 July.
NAMED LEVELS WORTH WATCHING
↑ Upside liquidity (resistance)
- 1.1475, the immediate cap the bounce is pressing; first liquidity above the current 1.1450 print.
- 1.1500, the round-number pivot the euro has to reclaim and hold to open the picture higher.
- 1.1560 to 1.1600 shelf, the D1 supply zone that sits above 1.1500 once the pivot flips.
↓ Downside liquidity (support)
- 1.1400, the base of the current range and the 23.6% retracement of the 2022 to 2026 rally; the structural pivot below.
- 1.1370, the next support just beneath, the level that has to break to open the deeper unwind.
The Macro Setup Behind Today’s EUR/USD Forecast
The dollar is on a second pullback and the euro is riding it. Wednesday’s June FOMC minutes came in hawkish, the committee held 3.50 to 3.75%, flagged upside inflation risks, and a few officials signalled another hike could become appropriate. The dollar rallied on the release, faded through Thursday, and this morning is extending the fade into a broader softening as the market consolidates into next week’s US CPI print. You see the same tape everywhere: cable broke above 1.3400, gold reclaimed 4,100 and trades near 4,120, USD/JPY at 161.5 is falling half a percent on the day, and DXY at 100.90 is chopping under its 200-period average at 101.02.
The backdrop is two sided and that is why the euro is capped, not breaking. WTI slipped back below 73 after an 11% two-day spike on the US-Iran escalation, the 10-year yield eased to 4.54% from 4.57%, and the near-term inflation scare cooled. Today’s tape leans softer dollar and easing yields, not a fresh inflation impulse, and that has let the euro grind toward the top of its range. Structurally though, the inflation risk is still live: oil is elevated, Trump has said the Iran ceasefire is over and has warned on Kharg Island and a possible Hormuz blockade (CNBC), and the Fed’s higher-for-longer signal remains the spine of dollar pricing. The euro has repeatedly traded as the cleanest expression of the Fed path, so a bounce that presses 1.1475 while the Fed stays higher-for-longer is exactly the range test the desk maps into CPI.
The catalyst calendar tells you everything about why price is chopping here rather than trending. US CPI lands Tuesday 14 July at 8:30 ET, the ECB meeting follows on 23 July, and the Fed’s 28-29 July decision closes the loop. Until CPI resolves the near-term inflation question, positioning does the work, not conviction. The desk’s read is that today’s softer-dollar lean is consolidation flow into the print, not a directional break. The full live read on this is the kind of thing that drops daily inside the MACRO MASTERY desk, where we cover CPI live as the print lands.
Multi-Timeframe Read For The EUR/USD Forecast
On the daily, the euro is inside a range whose ceiling is the 1.1475 cap and whose floor is the 1.1400 pivot, with 1.1500 as the round-number resolver above and 1.1370 as the next liquidity below. Price has spent most of the last fortnight compressing between the base and the middle of that range, and today’s press into 1.1475 is the first serious retest of the upper edge since the hawkish minutes tried to break it lower. The 23.6% retracement of the 2022 to 2026 rally sits at 1.1400 and has caught price twice this month, which is what makes it structural rather than incidental.
Step down to H4 and the tape shows a shallow higher-low sequence off 1.1400, but no impulsive break yet. The euro is grinding, not driving, and every push toward 1.1475 has met supply that has capped closes just under the level. That is textbook range behaviour into a known catalyst: the market is unwilling to commit either way ahead of CPI, so the edges get tested but not resolved. Intraday, the dollar-pullback flow has done the heavy lifting; DXY at 100.90 sitting between its 50-period average at 99.89 and its 200-period average at 101.02 is a mirror image of the euro’s own chop.
The MACRO MASTERY desk caught a clean read on this regime last week when the euro rejected 1.1475 into Wednesday’s minutes, and the framework for reading range consolidation into tier-1 US data lives in the desk’s archive. The lesson we keep returning to: ranges into CPI resolve on the print, not before it.
Scenario Map: Where The EUR/USD Forecast Goes From Here
Bull case (softer CPI, dollar pullback extends). A cooler-than-expected US inflation print on 14 July validates the second dollar pullback, DXY loses its 100.90 chop and drifts toward 100.71, and the euro clears 1.1475 on a daily close. In that scenario the pair tends to press 1.1500 as the pivot the euro has to reclaim and hold; a weekly close above there opens the 1.1560 to 1.1600 D1 shelf above, which is the first meaningful supply zone since the range began compressing. The desk turns constructive only on that weekly hold, not on the intraday break.
Bear case (Hormuz shock, hot CPI, or both). An oil re-spike from a Kharg Island strike or a Hormuz disruption re-arms the inflation impulse, or CPI prints hot enough to reprice the Fed path back toward a hike, and the dollar’s second pullback ends. Yields firm off 4.54%, DXY reclaims the 101.02 200-period average, and the euro rolls back from 1.1475 without a close through it. In that scenario the pair tends to drift toward 1.1400, the base of the range and the 23.6% retracement pivot, with 1.1370 the next liquidity if 1.1400 fails on a daily close.
What Would Invalidate The Read
A hot CPI print on Tuesday that pushes the 10-year back above 4.60% and DXY through its 101.02 200-period average would end the dollar-pullback thesis and flip the euro back toward 1.1400. On the other side, a fresh Hormuz or Kharg Island escalation that re-spikes oil and yields together would do the same thing through a different channel. A daily close above 1.1500 would invalidate the range-consolidation read from the top side and open the 1.1560 to 1.1600 shelf.
Final Takeaway On The EUR/USD Forecast
The euro is doing exactly what it should be doing into a tier-1 US inflation print: pressing the top of its range on a softening dollar without committing to a break. The 1.1475 cap and the 1.1400 base are the two edges that matter, and CPI on Tuesday is the swing that decides which one gives. Until then, the tape is consolidation flow, chop not trend, and the structural inflation risk from oil and the Iran war is why the dollar’s downside stays capped even on a pullback day.
The desk covers CPI live on Tuesday
The five-lens framework we use to read range consolidations into tier-1 US data is unpacked in detail inside the MACRO MASTERY desk, and the July CPI print gets live coverage as it lands. Same stack a hedge-fund analyst runs every morning, delivered via MACRO MASTERY.
FAQ
What is the EUR/USD forecast for today, 10 July 2026?
EUR/USD trades at 1.1450 on Friday 10 July 2026, pressing the 1.1475 cap as the dollar extends a second pullback after hawkish FOMC minutes failed to hold. The pair remains inside its 1.1400 to 1.1475 range, with 1.1500 the round-number pivot above. US CPI on Tuesday 14 July is the swing catalyst that resolves the range.
Why is the dollar pulling back if the Fed minutes were hawkish?
The hawkish June FOMC minutes released on 8 July initially bid the dollar, but the market has faded that move over the last two sessions as WTI slipped back below 73 and the 10-year yield eased to 4.54% from 4.57%. The near-term inflation scare cooled, positioning ahead of CPI does the work, and consolidation flow is dominating conviction until Tuesday’s print resolves it.
What is the key resistance level for EUR/USD this week?
The immediate cap is 1.1475, the level the current bounce is pressing. Above it sits 1.1500 as the round-number pivot the euro has to reclaim and hold on a daily close. A weekly hold above 1.1500 opens the 1.1560 to 1.1600 D1 supply shelf, which is the first meaningful resistance zone since the range compression began in late June.
Where is the key support level for EUR/USD?
1.1400 is the structural pivot: it is both the base of the current range and the 23.6% retracement of the 2022 to 2026 rally, which is what makes it structural rather than incidental. Below it, 1.1370 is the next liquidity pocket. A daily close through 1.1370 would open a deeper unwind toward the mid-1.13s.
How does US CPI affect the EUR/USD forecast?
US CPI on Tuesday 14 July is the decider into the 28-29 July FOMC. A cooler print validates the second dollar pullback, extends the softer-dollar tape, and opens a euro break above 1.1475. A hotter print reprices the Fed path back toward a hike, firms yields off 4.54%, and pushes the pair back toward 1.1400. That two-way risk is why the range holds until the print lands.
How does the Iran war affect EUR/USD?
The US-Iran escalation feeds EUR/USD through the oil channel. Trump has said the ceasefire is over and warned on Kharg Island and a possible Hormuz blockade. An oil re-spike re-arms the inflation impulse, firms US yields, and bids the dollar against the euro. A de-escalation does the opposite. Even on a pullback day like today, that structural inflation risk keeps the dollar’s downside capped and the euro under 1.1500.
When is the next ECB meeting and how does it fit the EUR/USD forecast?
The next ECB meeting is scheduled for 23 July 2026, sandwiched between US CPI on 14 July and the FOMC on 28-29 July. The euro has repeatedly traded as the cleanest expression of the Fed path rather than the ECB path in this cycle, so US CPI matters more for near-term direction, but the ECB decision will refine the rate-differential picture ahead of the Fed and shape the second half of the July range.
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Related Reading
Sources: TradingEconomics, Investing.com, FXStreet, Barchart, DailyForex, TradersUnion, LiteFinance, CNBC, TradingKey, Federal Reserve (FOMC minutes 8 July 2026), FRED (10-year yield). Snapshot cross-referenced 2026-07-10 07:00 BST.
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