EUR/USD Forecast 3 July 2026: Post-NFP Bounce or Lower High?
By Ken Chigbo · Founder, KenMacro · 18+ years in markets, London trading floor and institutional FX
Updated 2026-07-03 08:30 BST · spot 1.1455 · cross-referenced across Bloomberg, FXStreet, Investing.com and Yahoo Finance.
QUICK ANSWER
The EUR/USD forecast for 3 July 2026 leans corrective, not constructive. Spot at 1.1455 has bounced off the 1.14 base after a soft +57k June NFP knocked the dollar, but price sits below its 50 and 200-day averages with RSI near 37. The desk reads a lower-high risk under the 1.15 pivot until June CPI on 14 July confirms the cooling.
NAMED LEVELS · EUR/USD
Verified desk liquidity map. What each level is, and why it matters.
↓ RESISTANCE (upside liquidity)
- 1.1500 · round pivot · the level the bounce has to reclaim and hold to change the read.
- 1.1560 to 1.1600 · H4 supply shelf · the ceiling that caps the corrective bounce; the top of the shelf is the 1.16 round.
- 1.1820 · prior swing-high band · the ceiling on the bigger structure, the level that has to fall to end the downtrend.
↑ SUPPORT (downside liquidity)
- 1.1400 · round base of the range · a weekly close below re-arms the downtrend.
- 1.1300 · round · the next support on a confirmed break lower.
The Macro Setup Behind the EUR/USD Forecast
This is a dollar move, not a euro move. On 2 July the Bureau of Labor Statistics printed June Non Farm Payrolls at +57,000 against roughly 110,000 expected, the fewest in four months, with May revised down to 129,000. The dollar caught a proper knock on it. EUR/USD lifted off 1.14, cable surged to a two-week high at 1.3367, and gold rebounded from an eight-month low and broke back above 4,100 to press 4,185.
The desk’s read is that this is a data-driven correction, not a confirmed trend change. The internals of the print were not clearly dovish. Unemployment ticked down to 4.2%, admittedly on a lower participation rate. Average hourly earnings held firm at +0.3% month on month and +3.5% year on year. Core CPI is still running at 2.9%, well above the Fed’s 2% target. What the print did was squeeze out the most aggressive hike bets that had piled in since Kevin Warsh’s hawkish 17 June hold at 3.50 to 3.75%. Summer-hike odds repriced from roughly 70% toward 50%; a July hike is now a low probability. That’s a repricing, not a pivot.
EUR/USD has repeatedly traded as the cleanest expression of the Fed path, and that’s the analogue the desk is leaning on this morning. A bounce that fails while the Fed still leans hawkish is exactly the lower-high risk we’re mapping under 1.15. The decider is the run-up to the 28-29 July FOMC, and specifically June CPI on 14 July. A soft CPI would confirm the cooling and put the dollar under real pressure. A hot CPI turns this bounce into a textbook lower high before the dollar resumes higher. The full daily read on how this decomposes across the dollar complex is the kind of work that drops daily inside the MACRO MASTERY desk.
For the wider dollar picture the desk is running into July, our US dollar outlook lays out the higher-low framework that a soft CPI would break. And for readers who want the desk’s checklist for CPI morning itself, how to prepare for high-impact data walks through the pre-print routine.
Multi-Timeframe Read: What the EUR/USD Forecast Looks Like on the Charts
On the daily, EUR/USD is still under both the 50-day and the 200-day averages, and RSI near 37 tells us momentum has softened but has not yet flipped. The base of the range at the 1.14 round has held on the NFP miss, which is what the bulls needed. That doesn’t make it a trend change on its own. Every bear market has bounces; the question is whether this one reclaims the 1.15 pivot and closes a week above it, or whether it stalls at the 1.1560 to 1.1600 shelf and rolls back over.
Stepping down to H4, the tape from the NFP release yesterday was clean one-way flow into the London close and then a gentle grind through Asia. Spot at 1.1455 has printed just under the 1.15 pivot without threatening it yet. The 1.1560 to 1.1600 shelf is the H4 supply that capped the last two rally attempts inside this range, and it’s the level the desk is watching to define the lower-high risk.
Intraday, the bid stepped in each time price sniffed sub-1.1430 during Asia, but the spread stayed tight and size hasn’t come through in either direction. That’s a market waiting for the London open to make a real decision. Above 1.15, the tape can extend into the shelf. Below 1.1430, the base of the range comes back into play.
Scenario Map for the EUR/USD Forecast
Bull scenario (roughly 40%). The dollar repricing continues into next week’s CPI, EUR/USD reclaims the 1.15 pivot on a daily close, then works into the 1.1560 to 1.1600 H4 supply shelf. In this scenario the euro tends to grind rather than run, because ECB pricing hasn’t shifted; this is purely a dollar-side unwind. The level that would confirm a real structure change is a weekly close back above 1.15, followed by acceptance above 1.1600. The ceiling on that bigger structure remains 1.1820. Anything short of a weekly reclaim of 1.15 keeps the bounce corrective in the desk’s read.
Bear scenario (roughly 60%). This is the lower-high path. Spot stalls under the 1.15 pivot or into the 1.1560 to 1.1600 shelf, then rolls back over into the 1.14 round. A weekly close below 1.14 re-arms the downtrend and opens 1.13 as the next objective on a confirmed break. In this scenario, the catalyst is either a hot 14 July CPI print or a hawkish 28-29 July FOMC that reprices the summer-hike odds back toward where they were before the NFP miss. Firm wages, low unemployment, and sticky core still lean this way structurally. The MACRO MASTERY desk covers CPI live as the print lands, which is when this scenario resolves.
WHAT WOULD INVALIDATE THE READ
Two things force a reassessment. First, a weekly close back above 1.15 that holds through the 14 July CPI print. That would flip the desk constructive on the euro against a broken dollar higher-low structure. Second, a soft CPI print that trims both a July hike AND much of the rest-of-year hike pricing at once, because that breaks the sticky-core narrative the desk is leaning on. Either one, and this stops being a corrective bounce.
Final Takeaway on the EUR/USD Forecast
The euro bounced because the dollar got repriced, not because the euro found new bid. Spot at 1.1455 sits between the 1.14 base and the 1.15 pivot, still under its 50 and 200-day averages, and the desk reads the path of least resistance as a lower high into 14 July CPI unless a weekly close above 1.15 says otherwise. Respect the bounce; don’t chase it.
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“The market didn’t turn dovish on Wednesday. The market got long the wrong side of a print. Those are different things, and they resolve differently.”
EUR/USD Forecast FAQ
Why did EUR/USD bounce on 3 July 2026?
EUR/USD bounced because June US Non Farm Payrolls released on 2 July printed at +57,000 against roughly 110,000 expected, a four-month low, with May revised down. The soft print knocked the dollar and cooled aggressive Fed hike bets that had built up since Kevin Warsh’s hawkish 17 June hold. The euro lifted off the 1.14 area to 1.1455 as a mechanical dollar unwind, not as fresh euro strength.
What is the key resistance level for EUR/USD this week?
The 1.15 round pivot is the first hurdle EUR/USD has to reclaim on a daily close to change the corrective read. Above that, the 1.1560 to 1.1600 H4 supply shelf caps the current bounce. The bigger-structure ceiling remains the 1.1820 prior swing-high band. Without a weekly close back above 1.15, the desk treats any rally as a lower-high risk.
What is the key support level for EUR/USD?
The 1.14 round is the base of the current range and the level the NFP-miss bounce has to defend to keep the corrective bid alive. A weekly close below 1.14 re-arms the downtrend and opens 1.13 as the next confirmed support on a break lower. These are the only two downside liquidity zones on the desk’s map right now.
Will the Fed hike rates in July 2026?
After the soft June NFP a July hike is now a low probability. Summer-hike odds repriced from roughly 70% toward 50% following the print. That said, wages held firm at +3.5% year on year, unemployment ticked down to 4.2%, and core CPI is still 2.9%. The decider is June CPI on 14 July, the last major inflation read before the 28-29 July FOMC.
Is EUR/USD in a bullish or bearish trend?
EUR/USD is in a corrective bounce inside a broader bearish structure. Spot at 1.1455 remains under both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and RSI near 37 shows momentum has softened but not yet flipped. Until a weekly close back above the 1.15 pivot, the desk treats the setup as a lower-high risk, not a confirmed trend change.
What is the next big catalyst for EUR/USD?
June US CPI on 14 July is the next major catalyst for EUR/USD. A soft print would confirm the cooling flagged by the NFP miss and put real pressure on the dollar, potentially breaking the higher-low structure. A hot print would revive the hawkish Fed path and turn the current euro bounce into a textbook lower high. The 28-29 July FOMC follows two weeks later.
Educational analysis only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Manage risk against your own portfolio.
Related Reading
Sources: BLS (June NFP release, 2 July 2026), Federal Reserve (17 June 2026 statement), TradingEconomics, FXStreet, Investing.com, Barchart, Bloomberg, Markets.com,
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