EUR/USD Forecast: Triple Top Neckline Fights 1.14
By Ken Chigbo · Founder, KenMacro · 18+ years in markets, London trading floor and institutional FX
Updated 2026-07-01 08:30 BST
The euro is fighting for its life on the neckline. A pattern the desk has watched build for six months is now down to a weekly close, and the calendar has stacked ADP, ISM and Fed Chair Warsh at Sintra behind it before the ink is dry.
Quick Answer
The 1 July EUR/USD forecast has the pair at 1.1407, wrestling the 1.14 to 1.15 neckline of a potential triple top built off the 1.2019 peak. A weekly close below 1.1400 confirms the break and opens 1.06 to 1.08. A hold above 1.14 into ADP, ISM and Warsh at Sintra turns it into a failed breakdown.
Named Levels Worth Watching
Upside liquidity (resistance)
↓ 1.1435 · the 19 June low, the immediate level in focus on any bounce.
↓ 1.1500 · the top of the 1.14 to 1.15 neckline zone.
↓ 1.2019 · the triple-top high (28 January peak), the ceiling of the pattern.
Downside liquidity (objectives)
↑ 1.1400 · the neckline, a weekly close below confirms the break.
↑ 1.0800 · the top of the measured-move target zone on a confirmed break.
↑ 1.0600 · the base of the measured-move target, aligned with the channel’s lower boundary.
The Macro Setup Behind the EUR/USD Forecast
This is a dollar move dressed up as a euro move. The US Dollar Index is holding 101.20, up more than 2% on the month for a second straight monthly advance and carving a higher low into a higher-high pattern. That is not a mean-reversion tape. That is trend, and it is the direct consequence of Kevin Warsh’s Fed holding 3.50 to 3.75% on 17 June with a hike-leaning message, which the Middle East energy bid has then hardened into an actual repricing. Rate-cut bets for the year have been wiped and the strip now leans toward a possible September hike, which is why the US 2-year is firm and why gold is heading for a fourth straight monthly decline, offered near an eight-month low around $3,987.
EUR/USD has always traded as the cleanest expression of the Fed-minus-ECB path gap, so a firm dollar that widens that gap is exactly the bearish pressure the desk is mapping through the 1.14 neckline. The euro has now printed three highs at 1.18 to 1.2019, with the 28 January peak at 1.2019 the most recent, and the neckline that decides the pattern sits at 1.14 to 1.15, exactly where price is fighting now. The last time a euro topping pattern of this scale broke, in late 2021, the pair proceeded to give up 15 big figures over the following nine months as the Fed-ECB gap widened. This is why the desk is watching the weekly close, not the intraday wick. The MACRO MASTERY desk has been tracking this pattern since the 1.20 rejection in late January, and the framework is in the desk archive.
The calendar makes today the decision day. ADP National Employment Change is due with consensus at about +118,000 against +122,000 prior, giving a first read on the labour market before Friday-style payrolls. ISM Manufacturing PMI lands at 10:00 ET, and the desk is watching the prices-paid sub-index as an inflation tell (the May print was 54.0). Yesterday’s JOLTS came in strong, so the labour-market read is already firm heading in. Then Fed Chair Warsh sits on the ECB Sintra Forum policy panel at about 13:00 GMT with Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey and Tiff Macklem. It is his first major international appearance as Chair, and it happens next to the ECB President while the euro trades on a neckline. Tomorrow, Non Farm Payrolls, brought forward to 2 July ahead of the 4 July holiday, is the week’s main event and Warsh’s first payrolls print as Chair. Every headline out of Sintra is a live wire for the pair. The MACRO MASTERY desk covers FOMC, NFP and CPI live as the prints land, and Sintra will be no different.
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Multi-Timeframe Read for the EUR/USD Forecast
On the daily, the structure is now decisively rolling. EUR/USD rebounded from a one-year low to reclaim 1.14, but the bounce is running straight into the 19 June low at 1.1435, the immediate resistance in focus. The tape is doing what a distributional top does. It sells rallies rather than buying dips, and each bounce has been shallower than the last. The pair is below its 50-day moving average and the momentum profile is negative, but nothing yet has confirmed the neckline break. The confirmation lives in the weekly candle, and today is Tuesday.
On the H4, the read is a rejection off 1.1500 and a slow grind back toward the 1.14 handle. The desk saw a defended intraday low at the 1.1400 round support last week that held on the second retest, which is what has kept the pair on the neckline rather than through it. That defended low is the pivot. If it goes on a closing basis, the H4 structure flips to a lower low and lower high sequence with 1.0800 as the measured-move objective. If it holds a third test through today’s data, the setup morphs into a bear trap and the failed-breakdown squeeze becomes the risk the other way. GBP/USD confirms the dollar-side bias, having eased from the mid-1.34s to 1.3235 and trading under its 50 and 100-day moving averages, which tells the desk the euro is not alone; the entire majors complex is bending to the dollar bid. Same stack a hedge-fund analyst runs every morning, delivered via MACRO MASTERY.
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Scenario Map for the EUR/USD Forecast
Bear case (55%). ADP prints hot, ISM prices-paid firms above 54, and Warsh delivers hawkish continuity from the Sintra panel while Lagarde stays on hold. The dollar bid extends, the US 2-year firms further, and EUR/USD closes the week below 1.1400. That confirms the neckline break on the potential triple top and opens the measured move toward 1.0800 as the first objective, with 1.0600 the base of the target zone at the channel’s lower boundary. In this scenario, the pair tends to fail rallies at the 1.1435 shelf and any test of 1.1500 becomes the sell-the-rally structure the desk has watched build since January.
Bull case (45%). ADP misses to the downside, ISM prices-paid softens, and Warsh strikes a more balanced tone at Sintra while Lagarde sounds relatively hawkish. The dollar bid stalls, front-end yields ease, and EUR/USD closes the week back above the 1.14 to 1.15 zone. That turns the whole setup into a failed breakdown, a bullish tell, and the tape squeezes back toward the top of the neckline at 1.1500 first with 1.2019 the ceiling further out. In this scenario, the pair tends to punish shorts caught leaning on the pattern and 1.1500 becomes the level bulls need to reclaim.
What Would Invalidate the Read
A weekly close back above 1.1500 with expanding range flips the whole thesis: the triple top becomes a failed pattern and the neckline defence turns into the launchpad. Equally, a dovish surprise from Warsh at Sintra combined with a soft ADP and a cool ISM prices-paid would erase the September-hike lean, cap the dollar, and question the entire dollar-bid regime the desk has been mapping.
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Final Takeaway on the EUR/USD Forecast
EUR/USD is on the pivot bar, and this week’s close writes the next chapter. The pattern is real, the neckline is at 1.1400, and the catalysts, ADP, ISM prices-paid, Warsh at Sintra and NFP tomorrow, are all live between now and Friday. The desk respects both sides. This is a decision zone, not a done deal, and the weekly candle is where it gets settled.
“A weekly close is worth more than an intraday break, and a pattern this big only pays the people who wait for the candle to shut.”
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The MACRO MASTERY desk is running live cover on the neckline, ADP, ISM, Sintra and NFP through the week. The five-lens framework, including the daily-routine dashboard, is unpacked in detail inside the desk.
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EUR/USD Forecast FAQ
Where is EUR/USD trading right now on 1 July 2026?
EUR/USD is trading at 1.1407 on the morning of 1 July 2026, having rebounded from a one-year low back above the 1.14 handle. The pair is fighting the 1.14 to 1.15 neckline zone of a potential triple top built off highs at 1.18 to 1.2019, with the 28 January peak at 1.2019 the most recent. Price is below the 50-day moving average and the tape is selling rallies.
What is the triple top pattern on EUR/USD?
The potential triple top on EUR/USD is a distributional reversal pattern formed by three highs printed in the 1.18 to 1.2019 zone over the last six months, the most recent being the 28 January peak at 1.2019. The neckline sits at 1.14 to 1.15. A confirmed weekly close below 1.1400 opens a measured-move objective toward the 1.06 to 1.08 zone, which aligns with the ascending channel’s lower boundary.
Why is the dollar so strong against the euro right now?
The dollar is strong because Kevin Warsh’s Fed held the target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent on 17 June with a hike-leaning message, and a Middle East energy bid has since erased this year’s rate-cut expectations. The market now leans toward a possible September hike. Against an ECB seen on hold, the Fed-minus-ECB path gap widens, and EUR/USD has always traded as the cleanest expression of that gap.
What data drives EUR/USD this week?
The main drivers this week are ADP employment (consensus about +118,000 versus +122,000 prior) and ISM Manufacturing PMI on 1 July with the prices-paid sub-index as an inflation tell, Fed Chair Warsh on the ECB Sintra panel at about 13:00
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