EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Grinds Through 1.1450-1.1400 Liquidity as the Dollar Presses 1-Year Highs
Last checked: 24 June 2026, 09:45 UK time. Educational only, not financial advice. Trading is leveraged and most retail accounts lose money.
EUR/USD has done what a strong dollar tends to make it do. The pair has ground down through the 1.1450 to 1.1400 liquidity pocket, taking out the stops resting below, and is trading around the 1.14 handle, its lowest since June 2025. This is not a euro story so much as a dollar story, and the dollar story is rate hikes.
Why the euro is on the back foot
The driver is the same one moving the whole board. Markets are now pricing a 37.6% chance of a Federal Reserve hike at the 29 July meeting, up sharply on firmer US inflation data and hawkish Fed comments, with the dollar index at its highest since April last year. When the front end of the US curve leans hawkish and Europe does not match it, EUR/USD leaks. The desk flagged this liquidity pocket as the area to watch, and it has now been ground out.
The calendar from here keeps the pressure pointed the same way:
- US core PCE, Thursday 25 June. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Hot keeps the dollar bid and the euro heavy.
- US non-farm payrolls, Thursday 2 July, then US CPI, Tuesday 14 July, into the 29 July FOMC.
Levels: liquidity taken, eyes lower
| Zone | Read (as of 24 June) |
|---|---|
| 1.1450 – 1.1400 | Key liquidity pocket, now ground down, stops taken |
| ~1.1400 handle | Pair trading here, lowest since June 2025 |
| Below 1.1400 | Opens continuation toward the 1.13 region if the dollar extends |
| What turns it | A soft PCE / payrolls print that lets the market unwind July hike risk |
What changed since the last update
The 1.1450-1.1400 liquidity has been taken and EUR/USD has printed its lowest level since June 2025, driven by the dollar’s break to a 14-month high on the firmer July hike pricing.
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FAQ
Why is EUR/USD falling in June 2026? EUR/USD has ground through the 1.1450-1.1400 liquidity area to its lowest since June 2025 because the US dollar is firming on a higher chance of a July Fed rate hike, currently priced at about 37.6%.
What is the next level for EUR/USD? With the 1.1450-1.1400 pocket taken, a sustained break of 1.1400 opens room toward the 1.13 region if the dollar extends. A soft inflation print is the main risk to that view.
What could turn the euro back up? A soft US core PCE or payrolls report that pushes the market to unwind July hike pricing would relieve dollar pressure on the pair.
Confirmed facts: EUR/USD level and one-year low, the dollar index high, the 37.6% July hike probability and the data dates are sourced from market data providers, CME pricing and the BLS/BEA calendars. The level map is the desk’s interpretation, not a guarantee. Trading involves risk.
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