How to Trade the News in 2026: NFP, CPI, FOMC

Trading Guide, 2026

By Ken Chigbo, Founder, KenMacro, 18+ years across discretionary and systematic strategies, UK macro desk.

Find Ken on X @realkenchigbo · YouTube @Realkenchigbo · MACRO MASTERY Discord

Updated 2026-05-21

Why most retail loses the first move

The seconds after a high-impact release are the single most hostile execution environment in retail trading. Three things happen at once. Spreads widen three to five times as liquidity providers pull quotes to avoid being run over. Slippage on market orders becomes severe because the book is thin. And the first directional move is frequently a stop-hunt, a fast spike that triggers retail stops on both sides before the real move begins. A trader who clicks market the instant the number prints is paying the widest spread of the day to enter a move that often reverses within ninety seconds. The desk’s first rule of news trading is simply: the spike is not the trade.

The three releases that actually move the macro tape

Not all news is equal. Three releases dominate the macro reaction function in 2026. Non-farm payrolls, the US jobs report, drives the dollar and rate expectations and is the single most volatile scheduled print of the month. CPI, the US inflation report, has overtaken payrolls in importance during the inflation cycle because it directly governs the Fed path. And the FOMC decision plus the press conference, where the statement is one input and the chair’s tone in the Q and A is often the bigger mover. The desk reads these in the macro-stack order: what does the print do to real yields, then the dollar, then the regime. The chart reaction comes last and is the noisiest part.

The desk’s framework: position for the regime, not the spike

The professional approach to news is to have a thesis about the regime before the print, then let the print confirm or deny it, then act on the second leg with a normal spread. If the desk’s macro read going in is that disinflation is intact and the Fed is patient, a soft CPI confirms the regime and the trade is the continuation that follows once spreads normalise, not the first green candle. If the print contradicts the thesis, the right action is often no action, because a print that breaks your regime read is information, not an invitation to chase. This is the difference between trading the news and gambling on the number.

Execution: the broker decides whether you survive

News trading is the one environment where the broker matters as much as the strategy. A broker that widens spreads punitively, slips market orders badly, or requotes during the release will turn a correct read into a loss. The desk’s view: for anyone who intends to trade around high-impact releases, a genuine raw-spread ECN-style book with deep liquidity is not a luxury, it is the requirement. The retail dealing-desk model, where the broker is the counterparty, is structurally the worst place to be when the tape is moving fastest. Choose execution before you choose a strategy.

The desk’s step-by-step

1. Know the calendar. Mark the high-impact releases for the week, NFP, CPI, FOMC, and the time of each in your timezone. Never get caught in an open position into a print you did not know was coming.
2. Form a regime thesis before the print. Decide what your macro read is and what each outcome would mean, before the number lands. Real yields, then the dollar, then the regime.
3. Do not trade the spike. Let the first thirty to ninety seconds pass. Spreads are widest and the first move is often a fakeout. Survival beats being early.
4. Act on the second leg, at a normal spread. Once liquidity returns and the print has confirmed or denied your thesis, act with a normal spread on the move that has structure behind it.
5. Size for the spread, not the move. Position size accounting for the wider stop a volatile session demands. A correct read sized too large still ends the account on a wick.

Frequently asked

Should I trade the moment the news comes out?

No. The first thirty to ninety seconds after a high-impact release carry the widest spreads of the day, the worst slippage, and a first move that is frequently a stop-hunt fakeout. The desk’s rule is to let the spike pass and act on the second leg once liquidity returns and the print has confirmed or denied your regime thesis.

What are the most important news releases to trade?

Non-farm payrolls, US CPI, and the FOMC decision and press conference dominate the macro reaction function in 2026. CPI has arguably overtaken payrolls during the inflation cycle because it directly governs the Fed path. Read each in the order real yields, then the dollar, then the regime, with the chart reaction last.

Why does my broker matter so much for news trading?

Because the seconds around a release are the most hostile execution environment in retail trading. A broker that widens spreads punitively, slips market orders, or requotes will turn a correct read into a loss. A genuine raw-spread ECN-style book with deep liquidity is the requirement, not a luxury, for anyone trading around high-impact prints.

How do I avoid getting stopped out on the news spike?

Do not be in a position into the spike unless you have deliberately sized for it. The first move often triggers stops on both sides before the real move begins. Either stay flat through the release and act on the second leg, or size so small that the spike cannot threaten the account, and place stops outside the expected volatility band, not inside it.

Educational analysis only, not financial advice. KenMacro has commercial partnerships with the brokers referenced and may earn a commission if you open an account. Manage risk against your own portfolio.