How to Trade the Economic Calendar (2026 Guide)

The Desk’s Guide

By Ken Chigbo, Founder, KenMacro, 18+ years across discretionary and systematic strategies, UK macro desk.

Find Ken on X @realkenchigbo · YouTube @Realkenchigbo · MACRO MASTERY Discord

Updated 2026-05-22

What the economic calendar actually is

The economic calendar is a scheduled list of data releases, central bank decisions and speeches that are expected to move financial markets. Every major data provider publishes one, and the key columns are the same across all of them: the time and date of the release, the country and currency affected, the impact rating (low, medium, high), the forecast (consensus expectation), the previous reading, and the actual number once it is published. The impact rating is the most practically useful column for traders. High-impact events are the ones that can move your open positions hard and fast, sometimes before your stop is even processed, which is why you need a plan before the number drops, not a reaction after it.

The highest-impact events and why they move markets

Four events sit above everything else in terms of consistent market-moving power. US Non-Farm Payrolls, released on the first Friday of every month, is the most watched labour market data in the world and directly shapes Federal Reserve rate expectations. US CPI, released monthly, is the inflation gauge that the Fed has spent the last two years watching more closely than anything else. FOMC rate decisions, eight times per year, set the benchmark cost of money in the largest economy on earth and come with a press conference that often delivers more volatility than the decision itself. Central bank decisions from the BoE, ECB, RBA and others complete the calendar. These move their own currency pairs and, via risk-sentiment channels, gold, indices and bonds. Everything else on the calendar is secondary. Build your routine around these four categories first.

The pre-event routine: four steps before the release

First, mark your key levels at least an hour before the release. Identify the nearest support and resistance on the relevant instrument, the recent high and low, and any open gaps on the chart. These become your reference points after the spike. Second, know the consensus. Pull the forecast from your calendar. The market has already priced the expected number. What moves price is the deviation from consensus, not the number itself. Third, write a plan for both directions. If the NFP beats, dollar likely rallies, gold likely falls. If it misses, the reverse. Having both scenarios written down before the release stops you reacting to noise. Fourth, cut your position size. The spread on EUR/USD or XAUUSD can widen to five, ten or twenty times its normal size in the seconds after a high-impact release. You do not want to be holding a full-size position when that happens.

Entry timing around the release

The desk’s default is to wait for the initial move to exhaust before entering. The first spike after a major release is the market finding its level. It is frequently violent, occasionally reverses fully, and is almost always accompanied by a widened spread and thin liquidity. Entering during that spike is effectively gambling on execution. The cleaner approach is to let the initial move play out, identify whether price is now approaching a key level you marked in step one, and enter on a retest of that level once the spread has normalised. This typically means waiting two to five minutes after the release, sometimes longer. You will miss some moves. You will also avoid a large number of stop-outs caused by the spike, not by your analysis being wrong. For NFP specifically, the desk often waits until the hour candle closes before considering any entry.

The broker requirement for news trading

Not all brokers allow news trading. Some explicitly ban scalping around high-impact events, widen spreads so aggressively that the trade is unworkable, or requote entries during volatile windows. Before you build a news-trading routine, check your broker’s terms. VT Markets operates ECN execution with no dealing desk on its Raw account, which means it passes your orders directly to liquidity providers rather than internalising them. That matters for news trading because speed and spread are determined by the liquidity pool, not by a broker’s desk deciding to accept or reject your order. It is an offshore Mauritius-regulated broker, so you understand the trade-off, but for execution mechanics it fits a news-trading workflow. Note that Star Trader does not permit scalping per FXEmpire’s documented review. If you are looking to hold trades for minutes around a release, check any broker’s terms explicitly before you fund. Blueberry Markets, which is ASIC-regulated under AFSL 535887, also operates Raw and Direct accounts suited to faster-moving strategies. Verify current spread and execution terms at signup.

Frequently asked

What is the best economic calendar for forex traders?

Forex Factory, Investing.com and DailyFX all publish reliable economic calendars with impact ratings, consensus forecasts and actual figures as they drop. The desk uses more than one, because a single source can be slow to update the actual figure. All three are free. The key habit is checking it the evening before your trading session, not five minutes before a release.

Should I close my positions before high-impact news?

If you do not have a news-trading plan and the release is high-impact, closing or reducing positions before the event is sensible risk management. A trade that was correctly positioned before the event can still be stopped out by a temporary spike in the opposite direction. The desk’s default for swing trades is to set a wider stop before a major release or reduce size to half if staying in.

How long should I wait after a news release before entering a trade?

Typically two to five minutes, minimum. Wait for the initial spike to exhaust, the spread to normalise, and for a clear direction to emerge. For the largest events, NFP and FOMC, the desk often waits for the first five-minute or fifteen-minute candle to close before considering an entry. You trade the outcome once it is established, not the moment of release.

What is the difference between high-impact and low-impact events on the calendar?

High-impact events are those with a consistent historical record of causing significant price movement across major pairs. These are NFP, CPI, FOMC, and major central bank decisions. Low-impact events rarely cause lasting moves but can briefly widen spreads. Medium-impact events are worth monitoring but rarely justify changing your position structure. Filter your calendar to show high-impact only for clarity.

Why do prices sometimes move before the actual release time?

Pre-release moves happen for two reasons. First, positioning: large players may be adjusting ahead of the event based on their own models or information flow, and that buying or selling moves price. Second, leaks or early data releases do occur occasionally, though they are rare on major US data. If you see a sharp move five to ten minutes before a scheduled release, do not chase it. Wait for the official number and the subsequent reaction.

KenMacro has commercial partnerships with one or more of the brokers referenced and may earn a commission if you open an account. Scores and rankings are editorial and independent of commission. Educational analysis only, not financial advice. Trading leveraged products carries a high risk of loss. Verify regulation by entity and current terms on the broker’s own site before funding any account.