FOMC Dot Plot: How Traders Actually Read It
Macro Glossary, Macro Drivers
By Ken Chigbo, macro trader and founder of KenMacro, 18+ years in markets.
Updated 2026-05-20
The desk’s answer
The FOMC dot plot is a chart released four times a year (March, June, September, December) where each FOMC participant places an anonymous dot for where they expect the fed funds rate to be at the end of each of the next three years and over the longer run. The market reads the median dot for headline direction, the dispersion to gauge committee disagreement, and the shift from the previous dot plot as the actual signal. A 25 basis-point move in the median dot is a major repricing event for the dollar and front-end rates.
Defined term, FOMC dot plot
The FOMC dot plot is the Summary of Economic Projections chart released quarterly at the March, June, September and December meetings, where each FOMC member anonymously plots a dot for their year-end view of the appropriate federal funds rate over the coming three years and the longer run. The median dot is the headline, the dispersion of the dots is the substance, and the change since the prior meeting is what trades.
What the dot plot actually shows
Nineteen FOMC participants (seven board governors plus twelve regional Fed presidents, even though only twelve vote in any meeting) each submit a dot for the appropriate year-end fed funds rate for the current year and the next two years, plus a longer-run dot meant to represent the neutral rate. The dots are anonymous. The Summary of Economic Projections also publishes the median projections for GDP growth, the unemployment rate, headline PCE and core PCE inflation alongside the dots. The full SEP runs roughly 12 pages, but the dot grid is the single image that trades.
How the market trades a dot plot shift
The headline trade is the change in the median dot for the current year and the next year versus the prior dot plot. A median that moves from one cut in 2026 to two cuts is a roughly 25 basis-point dovish shift, which typically sells the dollar 80 to 150 pips on EUR/USD, drops the 2-year Treasury yield 8 to 15 basis points, and lifts gold. The change in the longer-run dot is a second-order trade that affects term premium and the long end of the curve more than the front. Dispersion matters too: a tight cluster of dots means committee consensus, a wide cluster means the next print or speech will move the median, and the market discounts the message accordingly.
Why the dot plot is a guide, not a commitment
Members are projecting what they think is appropriate given their forecast, not pre-committing to vote for that path. Powell has repeatedly described the dots as conditional projections that change with the data. The post-meeting press conference is where the Chair contextualises the dot plot, and a hawkish median dot can be neutered by a dovish press-conference framing, which is why the full-tape move only resolves once Powell finishes speaking. Trading the dot plot in isolation without the press conference framing is one of the most common errors on FOMC day.
Frequently asked
How often is the dot plot released?
Four times a year, at the FOMC meetings in March, June, September and December, alongside the Summary of Economic Projections. The other four FOMC meetings have no dot plot release.
What is the median dot?
The median of the 19 FOMC participants’ year-end fed funds rate projections. The median for the current and next calendar year is the headline number that the market trades, and a 25 basis-point shift versus the prior dot plot is a major repricing event.
Is the dot plot a commitment?
No. The dots are conditional projections of what each member thinks would be appropriate given their forecast, not pre-committed votes. They change with the data and are subject to the Chair’s interpretation in the press conference.
What this means at the desk
Trade the median dot shift, but wait for Powell’s framing before sizing the second leg.
Read next from the desk
Educational glossary entry only,
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