EUR/USD Forecast: Warsh’s First FOMC Sets the Path
By Ken Chigbo · Founder, KenMacro · 18+ years in markets, London trading floor and institutional FX
Updated 2026-06-17T07:13:46.323Z · spot verified against Yahoo Finance and the desk feed
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The EUR/USD forecast for 17 June 2026 frames the pair at 1.1617 into Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC press conference, with 1.1618 acting as the 5d POC and prior-day-high pivot, 1.1660 as the 50 SMA daily supply above, and the 1.1596 swing low as the first liquidity pocket below. The Fed path, not the rate, drives direction.
Named Levels Worth Watching
Confluence score in brackets. Lens combination tagged. Scenarios and key levels only.
↑ RESISTANCE
- 1.1618 [score 3] · 5d POC + pivot R1 + prior-day high. The pivot the desk is watching, first liquidity directly above current price and the line the bull case has to reclaim cleanly.
- 1.1660 [score 3] · round 1.1650 + pivot R3 + 50 SMA daily. Upside supply shelf, the level a softer Warsh would attract the tape into.
↓ SUPPORT
- 1.1596 [score 5] · recent swing low + pivot S1 + prior-day low. Highest-confluence zone on the chart, first downside liquidity pocket below spot.
- 1.1550 [score 2] · pivot S3 + round 1.1550 + pivot S2. Mid-range round-number stop that catches the tape on a clean break of the swing low.
- 1.1515 [score 2] · round 1.1500 + prior-week low. The structural floor the bear case is mapping toward, a close below opens fresh range.
The Macro Setup Behind Today’s EUR/USD Forecast
Today is not about the rate. The Federal Reserve is priced to hold the target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent with around 97 percent conviction on CME FedWatch as of 13 June, so the print at 18:00 GMT is a non-event in isolation. What carries the tape is Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC since succeeding Jerome Powell on 22 May, and specifically how the statement, the dot plot and the press conference reprice the Fed path. The desk is watching for three things: a scrapping of the prior easing bias, a creeping hike-risk dot from members who see inflation running well above the 2 percent annualised target, and Warsh withholding his own dot in line with his stated scepticism of forward guidance. A hawkish read across those three widens the Fed-minus-ECB path gap and bids the dollar, the bearish catalyst the desk is mapping for the pair. A softer read squeezes the dollar and lets EUR/USD into the supply ladder above.
Europe is not silent into the print. ECB’s Simkus said at 07:00 GMT he sees “at least one more” rate increase and that capping inflation expectations is the priority (Financial Juice), a hawkish tilt from the Governing Council that, in isolation, narrows the path gap from the European side. UK CPI landed soft against forecast at 07:13 GMT, headline at 2.8 percent versus 3.0 percent expected and core at 2.6 percent versus 2.7 percent expected (Financial Juice), a print that pulled cable bid out of the open and indirectly cushioned EUR/USD via the dollar index. The Currency Strength tape (Financial Juice, 07:01 GMT) ranks CHF and JPY top with USD third and EUR fourth, the haven bid still live as the US-brokered Israel, Lebanon and Iran framework remains unsigned and renewed Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon have drawn Iranian warnings of a harsh response (CNN, wires). That tail keeps a war-premium bid under havens and a real risk under the Fed decision itself. EUR/USD has repeatedly traded as the cleanest expression of the Fed-minus-ECB path gap, so a hawkish Warsh that widens that gap is the bearish catalyst the desk is mapping. The full live read on this is the kind of thing that drops daily inside the MACRO MASTERY desk.
Cross-asset confirms the mixed regime. DXY sits at 99.545 effectively flat (Yahoo Finance, 07:03 GMT), VIX bid 1.38 percent to 19.46, gold up 0.47 percent to 4351.10 and WTI down 1.92 percent to 74.59 as post-Iran relief meets the Fed test (Investing). The desk’s composite reads risk tone mixed at minus 14, USD bias neutral at plus 1, vol regime elevated. That is a tape waiting for a catalyst, not pre-positioning into one. The FOMC calendar from the Federal Reserve and the ECB Governing Council calendar together set the path-gap clock the pair is pricing.
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Multi-Timeframe Read: Daily, H4, Intraday
On the daily, the pair is carving a potential lower high under the 1.1660 region where the 50 SMA daily and the pivot R3 round 1.1650 stack. The daily candle into the print is sitting on the 1.1596 swing low support shelf, the highest-confluence zone on the chart at a confluence score of 5 (recent swing low, pivot S1, prior-day low). A daily close below that zone is the structural break the bear case requires, and the next material liquidity below sits at the 1.1550 mid-range round and then the 1.1515 prior-week low.
On H4, the tape is compressing into the 1.1618 pivot, the 5d POC overlap with the prior-day high. That is the line the bull case has to reclaim and hold to release the squeeze toward the 1.1650 to 1.1660 supply shelf. Intraday, spot at 1.1617 (Yahoo Finance, 07:12 GMT) is plus 0.20 percent on the session, a pre-FOMC drift higher that the desk reads as positioning rather than conviction. The MACRO MASTERY desk covers FOMC live as the prints land, the statement, the dots, the press conference, parsed in real time.
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EUR/USD Forecast Scenario Map: Bull vs Bear
Bull scenario (softer Warsh, weight 40 percent). A statement that leaves the easing bias intact, a dot plot that does not show hike-risk creeping back in, and a press conference that defers heavily on forward guidance softens the dollar via narrowing the Fed-minus-ECB path gap. In this scenario, EUR/USD tends to reclaim the 1.1618 pivot cleanly and drift toward the 1.1650 to 1.1660 supply shelf where the 50 SMA daily and the pivot R3 stack. Above 1.1660, the tape opens into fresh range with no confluence-tagged zone in the immediate path. The bull case is invalidated on a rejection back through 1.1596.
Bear scenario (hawkish Warsh, weight 60 percent). A statement that scraps the easing bias for a neutral stance, a dot plot that puts hike-risk back on the table, and a press conference that tones the Fed path firmly higher widens the path gap and bids the dollar. In this scenario, EUR/USD tends to break the 1.1596 swing low cleanly and drift toward the 1.1550 mid-range round, then the 1.1515 prior-week low at the 1.1500 round confluence. A close below 1.1500 opens the path the desk is mapping toward 1.1450, the next material liquidity beneath the prior-week structure. The bear case is invalidated on a daily close back above the 1.1618 pivot.
What Would Invalidate the Read
A Warsh press conference that explicitly endorses the prior easing bias, a dot plot median that drops rather than holds, or a credible ceasefire signing on the Israel, Lebanon and Iran framework that collapses the haven bid, any one of these forces a reassessment of the bear weighting. Structurally, a daily close above 1.1660 negates the lower-high construction entirely. A daily close below 1.1500 confirms the structural break and accelerates the bear ladder.
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Final Takeaway on the EUR/USD Forecast
EUR/USD at 1.1617 is a coiled spring into Warsh’s first FOMC, with the 1.1618 pivot as the binary line and the path-gap repricing as the catalyst. The desk weights the bear scenario at 60 percent on a hawkish read across statement, dots and presser, with the 1.1596 swing low as the first domino and 1.1500 as the structural target. A softer read flips the squeeze higher into the 1.1650 to 1.1660 supply shelf. The rate is not the variable. The path is.
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EUR/USD Forecast FAQ
What is the EUR/USD forecast for 17 June 2026?
EUR/USD sits at 1.1617 ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC press conference. The desk weights the bear scenario at 60 percent on a hawkish Warsh read, with 1.1596 as the first downside liquidity pocket and 1.1500 as the structural floor. The bull scenario at 40 percent maps the 1.1650 to 1.1660 supply shelf as the upside ceiling on a softer Fed path.
Why does Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC matter for EUR/USD?
Warsh succeeded Jerome Powell on 22 May 2026 and brings stated scepticism of forward guidance. The market prices a hold at 3.50 to 3.75 percent with 97 percent conviction, so the rate is not the variable. The statement language, the dot plot dispersion and Warsh’s tone in his first press conference reprice the Fed-minus-ECB path gap, and that gap is what EUR/USD has historically tracked cleanest.
What does the ECB’s Simkus comment mean for the pair?
Simkus said at 07:00 GMT he sees at least one more ECB rate increase and stressed capping inflation expectations (Financial Juice). That is a hawkish tilt from the Governing Council, which on its own narrows the Fed-minus-ECB path gap from the European side and cushions the EUR leg. It does not, however, override a hawkish Warsh print, which moves the larger of the two legs.
Where is the key resistance on EUR/USD today?
The immediate pivot sits at 1.1618, the overlap of the 5-day point of control, the pivot R1 and the prior-day high. Above it, the 1.1650 to 1.1660 supply shelf marks the 50 SMA daily and the pivot R3 round-number cluster. A clean reclaim of 1.1618 on a softer Warsh read is what releases the squeeze into that upper shelf.
Where is the key support on EUR/USD today?
The 1.1596 swing low carries a confluence score of 5, the highest on the chart, overlapping the pivot S1 and the prior-day low. Below that, the 1.1550 mid-range round catches the tape, and the 1.1515 prior-week low at the 1.1500 round-number confluence is the structural floor. A daily close below 1.1500 opens the path toward 1.1450.
How did the UK CPI print affect the EUR/USD tape this morning?
UK headline CPI landed at 2.8 percent versus 3.0 percent expected and core at 2.6 percent versus 2.7 percent expected (Financial Juice, 07:13 GMT). The soft print pulled cable bid out of the European open and indirectly cushioned EUR/USD via the dollar index drift. The effect is secondary, a clean micro-tailwind that does not change the FOMC framing of the day.
Does the Israel, Lebanon and Iran situation affect EUR/USD?
Indirectly, yes. The US-brokered framework remains unsigned and renewed Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon have drawn Iranian warnings of a harsh response, keeping a war-premium bid under havens (CNN, wires). That bids CHF, JPY and gold over EUR and GBP on the currency strength tape, and it adds a tail risk under the Fed decision itself. A credible signing collapses the haven bid and flips the cross-asset regime.
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