EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Capped at 1.14 as the Dollar Pullback Fades (15 July 2026)

The desk read

The euro is firmer near 1.1430 as the dollar pulls back after the soft June CPI, but the desk reads it as a bounce inside a bearish structure, not a turn. Price is pinned at the multi year 1.14 pivot, the 100 day average is still below the 200 day, and momentum sits below its midline. The video walks the range, the levels and the macro are below.

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Macro backdrop, what is actually pricing

Confirmed facts. The June CPI released on 14 July cooled to 3.5 percent on the year, below the 3.8 percent the market expected and down from 4.2 percent in May, with the monthly figure at minus 0.4 percent and core at 2.6 percent on the year. The softening was led by fuel prices. On the same day, in his first testimony to Congress as Chair, Kevin Warsh pledged a Fed policy regime change to remove what he called the inflation tax, said the Committee has no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation, described the recent improvement as not mission accomplished, and criticised the 2020 average inflation framework as a mistake. He gave no hint on the July decision. Oil has surged, with WTI near 79.70 and Brent near 85.31, up more than 20 percent off the late June lows, as the United States reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz and strait traffic collapsed. The US 10 year Treasury yield sits near 4.62 percent, close to two month highs, having only dipped slightly on the softer print.

The desk’s read. Here is the desk read, and it is interpretation, not fact. The market is trading an out of date number. June cooled because fuel prices fell hard when the ceasefire dropped oil roughly 25 percent, and fuel has since ripped straight back up as Hormuz reignited, so the disinflation impulse behind that CPI has already reversed. Warsh is hawkish, yields are elevated and biased higher, and oil is adding to the inflation risk, not subtracting from it. That is why the desk treats the dollar softness as a corrective pullback inside an intact, still dollar supportive structure rather than a top, and why the backdrop stays a headwind for gold and for the dollar pairs. Yields are the truer read of where rates are going than a single lagging CPI print, and they say the dollar has support to bounce once this pullback bottoms.

The levels that matter

The euro is grinding at the top of a range on the dollar softness, but it stays capped under 1.15 until the data resolves the Fed path. The desk turns constructive only on a weekly hold back above 1.15.

How the desk is reading the scenarios

The base case is that 1.1435 to 1.1470 caps the bounce and price rolls back toward 1.1400 then 1.1323 while the dollar stays supported. A weekly close back above 1.15 would be the signal that flips the desk constructive and opens 1.1560 to 1.1600, and that likely needs the dollar to roll, which the backdrop is not delivering yet. The ECB on 23 July and the Fed on 29 July are the calendar risks. Levels, not trade ideas, and the risk is two sided.

What changed since the last update

The dollar pullback let the euro press the top of its range, but unlike a genuine breakout it has stalled at the 1.14 pivot rather than reclaiming 1.15. The bearish higher timeframe structure is unchanged.

Risk note

This is educational analysis, not financial advice and not a trade signal. The desk publishes named levels and scenarios, never entries, targets or stops. Markets are two sided and any level can fail, especially with live geopolitics in the tape. Manage your own risk.

Last checked: 15 July 2026, 08:00 UK. Levels cross referenced against TradingEconomics, Investing.com, FXStreet, Barchart, DailyForex and FXLeaders; macro against the BLS CPI release, Warsh’s 14 July testimony as reported by CNBC, Bloomberg and CNN, and oil and yields via CNBC, Bloomberg and Al Jazeera. More desk reads: KenMacro Macro Insights.

Educational analysis only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Manage risk against your own portfolio.