EUR/USD Forecast: Bounce Rolling Under 1.15 Shelf

By Ken Chigbo · Founder, KenMacro · 18+ years in markets, London trading floor and institutional FX

Find Ken on X @realkenchigbo · YouTube @Realkenchigbo · MACRO MASTERY Discord

Updated 2026-07-07 08:30 BST · spot 1.1420 (cross-referenced TradingEconomics, Investing.com, DailyForex)

The Macro Setup Behind This EUR/USD Forecast

Second day back after the long US Independence Day weekend, and the tape is doing exactly what a consolidation regime does. Liquidity is normalising, ranges are compressing, and every dollar pair is waiting on the same catalyst: the June FOMC minutes on Wednesday 8 July. That is the real EUR/USD forecast question this morning, not where 1.1420 goes in the next four hours, but whether the June committee is aligned with Chair Warsh’s hawkish, no-cuts line, or whether the soft payrolls print gives the doves cover.

The macro read cuts against the recent bounce. Yes, the DXY is near a three-week low around 100.90 after last week’s largest weekly drop since April, driven by a June non-farm payrolls print that came in at +57k versus consensus near 110k. But the internals were not dovish. Unemployment is still 4.2%, wages held firm at +0.3% month-on-month and +3.5% year-on-year, and the US 10-year sits at 4.49%, elevated and coiled in the mid-to-upper part of its 3.35 to 5.00% range over the past year. According to the Federal Reserve‘s June statement, the target range stayed at 3.50 to 3.75% with nine of eighteen officials pencilling at least one hike this year. Warsh has since buried forward guidance. That is not the backdrop for a durable euro rally.

EUR/USD has repeatedly traded as the cleanest expression of the Fed path, so a bounce that fails while the Fed still leans hawkish and yields sit coiled is exactly the lower-high risk the desk is mapping under 1.15. The full live read on this is the kind of thing that drops daily inside the MACRO MASTERY desk. Add the geopolitical tail: the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis is still live, with transit near 25 vessels a day versus about 110 pre-war, and the late-June M/T Kiku drone strike plus US retaliation keeps the oil-shock tail on the table. A re-closure spiked oil above $100 during the last episode versus about $65 pre-war. That impulse re-arms inflation, which supports the dollar. Every path through this week points the same way for the euro, and it is not up.

Multi-Timeframe Read: Why This EUR/USD Forecast Leans Corrective

Daily structure first. Price at 1.1420 is trading under both the 50 and 200-day moving averages, with momentum soft (RSI near 37, though we treat that as descriptive of the tape, not a level to trade). The 1.14 handle is doing double duty as both a round-number floor and the 23.6% retracement of the 2022 to 2026 rally, and that confluence is why the desk cares about a weekly close through it. A weekly close below 1.14 re-arms the broader downtrend that has been the dominant read since the dollar bottomed. A weekly close above 1.15 flips it.

H4 tells the intraday story. The bounce off last week’s low has stalled repeatedly at 1.1480, which is the H4 supply shelf that caps the corrective move. That is the level the desk is watching for the lower-high confirmation. Above it, 1.1500 is the pivot that changes the conversation, because reclaiming the psychological 1.15 handle and holding it on a daily close would force the desk to reconsider the dollar’s higher-low thesis. Above that, the 1.1540 D1 supply shelf is where the bounce has to break for a genuine trend reversal.

Intraday tape into the London session is thin and range-bound, which is typical for a Tuesday sitting on top of a Wednesday minutes release. The MACRO MASTERY desk covers FOMC minutes releases live as the wires hit, and this one matters. The market is not going to commit to a range break before it sees how aligned the committee is with Warsh’s line. Expect chop between 1.1400 and 1.1480 until the minutes clear.

Scenario Map

Bull scenario (weighted 30%). The FOMC minutes read softer than Warsh’s public line, with meaningful dissent flagged from the doves. In that scenario, EUR/USD tends to break the 1.1480 H4 supply shelf and press the 1.1500 pivot, and a daily close and hold above 1.15 opens the road to the 1.1540 D1 shelf. That is the level that would force the desk to flip the euro read constructive on a weekly hold. Above 1.1540 the corrective bounce becomes something more, and the dollar’s higher-low thesis is dead. The euro would then trade as a broken-downtrend recovery, with the 50-DMA reclaimed and the 200-DMA in range. Payrolls miss confirmation from a dovish minutes tone is the ignition. Absent that, this is not the base case.

Bear scenario (weighted 55%). The FOMC minutes confirm the June dot plot’s hike lean, with the committee broadly aligned behind Warsh. In that scenario, the bounce rolls at 1.1480 and rotates back to 1.1400 quickly, and a weekly close below the 1.14 round support and 23.6% retracement re-arms the downtrend. Below that, 1.1370 is the next liquidity shelf, and 1.1320 is the measured-move objective on a confirmed break. This is the desk’s mapped risk into Wednesday, and it aligns cleanly with the higher-low dollar structure, elevated coiled yields, and the Hormuz oil-shock tail. This is where the tape wants to go if the catalyst cooperates.

The remaining 15% is pure consolidation into next week’s June CPI on 14 July, with 1.1400 to 1.1480 holding as a two-sided range until the inflation print forces a resolution. Same stack a hedge-fund analyst runs every morning, delivered via MACRO MASTERY.

EUR/USD Forecast: The Final Takeaway

The desk reads this as a dollar consolidation, not a dollar reversal, and the euro’s bounce is corrective rather than constructive while price stays under 1.15 with the Fed still leaning hawkish and yields coiled. The June FOMC minutes on Wednesday decide whether the tape prints a lower high at 1.1480 or forces a reset above 1.15. Until then, 1.14 is the pivot the entire structure hangs on.

FAQ

What is the EUR/USD forecast for 7 July 2026?

The EUR/USD forecast for 7 July reads corrective. Spot at 1.1420 is bouncing on the soft US June jobs miss but stalling under the 1.1480 H4 supply shelf, with the desk mapping a lower high into Wednesday’s June FOMC minutes. The 1.14 round support is the pivot, and a weekly close below re-arms the downtrend. Above 1.15, the read flips constructive.

Why is EUR/USD not rallying harder on the weak US jobs data?

The June payrolls headline was soft at +57k versus about 110k expected, but the internals were not dovish. Unemployment is still 4.2%, average hourly earnings held firm at +0.3% month-on-month and +3.5% year-on-year, and the US 10-year yield is 4.49%, elevated and coiled. The labour market is still inflationary underneath the headline, so aggressive Fed hike bets paired back but a hike this year is still a live risk rather than dead.

What level does EUR/USD have to reclaim to flip bullish?

The desk flips constructive only on a weekly hold above 1.1500. That pivot combines the psychological round-number handle with the 50-day moving average vicinity and is the level that separates a corrective bounce from a genuine broken-downtrend recovery. Above 1.1540, the D1 supply shelf, the dollar’s higher-low thesis is dead and the euro trades as a recovery, not a corrective bounce.

What is the key catalyst for EUR/USD this week?

The June FOMC minutes on Wednesday 8 July are this week’s decider. It is the first detailed look at how aligned the committee is with Chair Warsh’s hawkish, no-cuts line. June CPI on 14 July and the 28-29 July FOMC are the bigger reads still ahead, but the minutes set the tone. Confirmation of lower highs or a range break may not come until the minutes hit the wire.

Could the Strait of Hormuz crisis affect EUR/USD?

Yes, indirectly. A re-closure of the strait would spike oil (it ran above $100 during the last closure versus about $65 pre-war) and re-arm the US inflation impulse. A firmer US inflation path supports the dollar to the upside, which cuts against the euro. The tail risk of another Iranian strike on shipping and US retaliation is one the desk is watching this week, and it aligns with the lower-high euro thesis.

What is the downside objective if EUR/USD breaks 1.14?

A confirmed weekly close below 1.14, which is both the round support and the 23.6% retracement of the 2022 to 2026 rally, opens the road to 1.1370 as the next support shelf, and 1.1320 as the measured-move objective on a confirmed break lower. Below 1.14 the desk reads the downtrend as re-armed and treats subsequent bounces as corrective within a broader dollar-strength regime.

Is EUR/USD trading purely on the dollar or is the euro doing anything?

This is a dollar move more than a euro move. The dollar is trying to build a higher low for a continuation higher, and it shows up across every dollar pair at once, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, gold, all trading the same theme. The ECB meets on 23 July and that is when euro-specific catalysts start to matter again. Until then, the tape is a Fed-path repricing story.

Educational analysis only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Manage risk against your own portfolio.

Related Reading

• US dollar outlook: the full DXY structure read behind every dollar pair
• How to prepare for high-impact data: the desk’s process for FOMC, CPI and NFP
• How to trade NFP: what the June payrolls miss actually meant for the Fed path
• Bank of England policy path via bankofengland.co.uk
• ECB policy statement archive via ecb.europa.eu

Sources: TradingEconomics, Investing.com, DailyForex, RoboForex, FXEmpire, TradersUnion, Wise (spot pricing cross-referenced 2026-07-07 08:30 BST). Federal Reserve calendar and June statement (federalreserve.gov). Al Jazeera, NBC, CNBC, Crisis Group for Strait of Hormuz coverage. All prices verified across two or more cleared sources within noise band before publication.