Durable goods orders explained: capex proxy definition

By Ken Chigbo, Founder, KenMacro. Published 2026-05-13.

What is durable goods orders?

Durable goods orders track the dollar value of new orders received by US manufacturers for items with an expected useful life of three years or longer, such as aircraft, machinery, vehicles, and computing equipment. The Census Bureau publishes an advance reading roughly four weeks after month-end, followed by a more complete revision. The headline figure is volatile because of lumpy aircraft and defence orders, so analysts focus on core capital goods orders, which strip out transportation and defence, as a cleaner read on underlying business capex intentions.

How traders use durable goods orders

The desk treats durable goods orders as a structural input rather than a short-term catalyst. Core capex orders feed directly into GDP nowcasts at the Atlanta Fed and inform views on the manufacturing cycle alongside ISM and regional Fed surveys. Macro traders watch for divergences: rising orders during a soft ISM print can signal a turning point, while falling core orders in an otherwise resilient economy often precede industrial slowdowns. Retail traders use the release to calibrate dollar bias, particularly against industrial currencies such as the yen and Korean won. Yield curve traders monitor the print for evidence supporting or contradicting Fed policy expectations, while equity desks rotate between cyclicals and defensives based on capex momentum.

Common misconceptions about durable goods orders

The most frequent misread is treating the headline number as the signal. Aircraft orders alone can swing the headline by double-digit percentages in a single month, masking the underlying trend. The desk always reads the core capital goods line first. A second misconception is that orders equal production or shipments. Orders are forward-looking commitments that may be cancelled or delayed, particularly during stress periods. Finally, traders often forget that the advance release is revised meaningfully when the full factory orders report follows, so positioning around the initial print carries revision risk that does not exist with payrolls or CPI.

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Frequently asked

When are durable goods orders released?

The US Census Bureau publishes the advance durable goods orders report roughly three to four weeks after the reference month ends, typically at 8:30am Eastern Time. A more comprehensive factory orders report, which includes durable and non-durable goods plus revisions, follows about a week later. The exact release calendar is published annually on the Census Bureau website, and Bloomberg, Reuters, and major economic calendars carry the schedule. Traders should note both dates because the revision can be material.

Why do traders watch core capital goods orders rather than the headline?

Core capital goods orders, which exclude aircraft and defence, give a cleaner read on private business investment because they remove the lumpiest, most politically driven components. A single Boeing order can add billions to the headline figure in one month and nothing the next, creating noise that obscures the underlying capex trend. The core series correlates more reliably with business confidence surveys, equipment investment in GDP, and the broader industrial cycle, which is what macro desks actually care about.

How do durable goods orders affect the US dollar?

A stronger than expected core orders print typically supports the dollar by reinforcing the case for resilient US growth and firmer Fed policy expectations. The reaction is generally smaller than for payrolls or CPI because durable goods is viewed as a second-tier release with high revision risk. The dollar response tends to be most pronounced when the data confirms or contradicts a prevailing macro narrative, such as a manufacturing recovery or an industrial slowdown.

Is durable goods orders a leading or lagging indicator?

Durable goods orders are a leading indicator of industrial production and business investment. Orders precede shipments, which precede production, which feeds GDP. Core capital goods orders in particular are used by the Conference Board in its Leading Economic Index and by the Atlanta Fed in its GDPNow model. That said, the series leads by only one to three months, so it functions more as a near-term confirmation tool than a long-horizon forecasting signal.

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