Dot plot explained: the FOMC Summary of Economic Projections

By Ken Chigbo, Founder, KenMacro. Published 2026-05-12.

What is dot plot?

The FOMC dot plot is published four times a year as part of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), at the March, June, September, and December FOMC meetings. Each FOMC voting member (currently 19, including the seven board governors and 12 regional bank presidents) submits an individual projection for the federal funds rate at the end of the current year, the next two calendar years, and the longer run. The projections are plotted as dots on a chart. The median dot for each year is the headline number. Markets react to the median for the current year (immediate policy expectations) and the longer-run dot (R-star anchor).

How traders use dot plot

Macro traders compare the new dot plot to the prior one, looking for hawkish or dovish shifts in the median and changes in dispersion. A 25-basis-point hawkish shift in the median end-of-year dot typically moves the dollar by 0.5 to 1.0 per cent on release, lifts the 2-year Treasury yield by 10 to 20 basis points, and pressures long-duration equities. Dispersion matters too: a tight dot cluster signals committee unity (more credibility), a wide spread signals disagreement (less credibility, more volatility on each FOMC). The KenMacro week-ahead briefing flags every quarterly SEP release with the consensus expectations and the keywords to watch. The desk treats the longer-run dot as a soft proxy for the Fed’s implicit R-star estimate.

Worked example with the dot plot

Consider a hypothetical March FOMC meeting where the median dot for the current year shifts from 4.50 per cent (prior dot plot) to 4.75 per cent (new). The 25-basis-point hawkish shift indicates the committee now expects one more rate hike than previously priced. The market reaction typically includes a 0.5 to 1.0 per cent dollar rally (DXY up), a 10 to 20 basis-point lift in the 2-year Treasury yield, a 5 to 10 basis-point lift in the 10-year, and 1 to 2 per cent pressure on the NASDAQ 100 (long-duration equities most sensitive). Dispersion within the dots also matters: 17 of 19 dots clustered above 4.50 per cent signals committee unity, four dots at 4.25 per cent and 15 at 4.75 per cent signals disagreement.

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Frequently asked

When is the next FOMC dot plot released?

The FOMC dot plot is published four times a year, at the March, June, September, and December FOMC meetings, as part of the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The exact dates are on the Federal Reserve calendar. The KenMacro week-ahead briefing flags every SEP release with consensus expectations and the keywords to watch.

Does the dot plot bind future Fed policy?

The dot plot does not bind future Fed policy. Each dot is an individual projection that policy-makers can revise meeting by meeting. The dot plot signals current committee thinking but is updated continuously, with the median often shifting 25 to 50 basis points per quarter as data evolves. Markets treat it as a high-information signal, not a contract.

What is the longer-run dot in the FOMC projections?

The longer-run dot in the FOMC dot plot is each policy-maker’s projection for the federal funds rate over the long run, when the economy is at potential and inflation is at target. The median longer-run dot is a soft proxy for the Fed’s implicit R-star estimate. The longer-run dot has trended down over the past two decades, from around 4 per cent to around 2.5 to 3 per cent.

Educational analysis only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Manage risk against your own portfolio.