GBP/USD Forecast: Cable Sits on 1.3357 Into US CPI

By Ken Chigbo · Founder, KenMacro · 18+ years in markets, London trading floor and institutional FX

Find Ken on X @realkenchigbo · YouTube @Realkenchigbo · MACRO MASTERY Discord

Updated 2026-07-14 08:05 BST · Spot 1.3359 (TwelveData / Yahoo Finance cross-verified)

The Macro Setup Behind Today’s GBP/USD Forecast

The oil shock has been taxed, and the Fed has been repriced. That is the one-line summary of the tape cable is trading into this morning. Trump has notified Congress of a new war against Iran, CENTCOM reinstates the naval blockade on Iranian vessels today at 21:00 BST, and Trump is levying a 20% toll on all cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, casting the US as the strait’s “guardian”. Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world’s traded oil and gas. Brent sits at 84.72, up 1.70% today after rising 9.6% the previous session, so roughly 11% in two days. WTI is at 79.57. The US 10-year, per the Federal Reserve H.15, is at 4.61%, up from 4.54% on Friday. That is the engine under the dollar bid.

The repricing is where cable’s problem sits. A 29 July hike is now priced at about 43% on CME FedWatch (43.3% hike against 56.7% no change, zero for a cut on contract ZQN6), with CNBC quoting it as high as 46.5% intraday. Kalshi has the same hike at 36%, up from under 20% on Sunday and under 10% earlier this month. In two weeks a July hike has gone from a non-event to almost a coin flip. Fed funds are 3.50 to 3.75%; a hike takes them to 3.75 to 4.00%. And Governor Christopher Waller has now published the trigger. In his 13 July speech he said that if there is another hot reading on core inflation, the FOMC “will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term”, refusing to repeat “the mistake we made in 2021 by not responding sooner”. His line: “Sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option.” He balanced it honestly, warning against fighting the last war, noting the labour market is looser than 2021 and inflation expectations are anchored near 2%. But the reaction function is public now, and it is not the headline. It is core.

Sterling carries its own energy problem stacked on top of the dollar’s rate bid. The UK is a net energy importer, and a crude spike that is now being taxed at 20% through Hormuz is a terms-of-trade hit for the pound at the same time as it is feeding the dollar’s inflation story. Cable tracks the broad dollar through a data run, and a failed break back inside a range has historically been the desk’s cue to fade strength rather than chase it, which is exactly how this 1.3400 rejection and the retest of 1.3357 is being mapped into today’s print. The full live read on this is the kind of thing that drops daily inside the MACRO MASTERY desk.

Now the day-of specifics. June CPI lands at 13:30 BST via the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consensus is headline minus 0.1% m/m, cutting the annual rate from 4.2% to about 3.9%, the first decline in four months. Core is expected plus 0.2% m/m with the annual core steady at 2.9%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh then testifies to the House Financial Services Committee at 15:00 BST, ninety minutes after the print, on his debut semiannual testimony. He cannot dodge the number. And here is the desk’s edge, and it is the single most important sentence in this piece: everyone will trade the headline, and the headline is the trap. Today’s print is structurally blind. The expected negative headline is mechanically an energy base effect, because US pump prices fell about 10% in June, the fourth-largest monthly drop in a decade. June CPI measures June. It cannot see the blockade, it cannot see the toll, and it cannot see the 11% two-day move in Brent, because none of it had happened when the data was collected. The oil shock that matters lands in the July and August prints. So read core. A hot core, at or above the 2.9% mark and sticky, is the number Waller told you he is watching, and it is the one that drags the hike into July.

Cross-asset, the tape is confirming this read without shouting it. DXY is at 101.20, down just 0.03%, holding the ground it took on Monday’s surge (the 101.02 cap has flipped to support). The euro has broken the 1.1400 range base and opened near a one-year low at 1.1390. Gold is up 0.55% at 4,023.74, basing on the 4,000 handle after losing 4,050 on Monday. And within all of that, cable sits exactly on 1.3357. The pound is not the driver here; the dollar is, and the war is widening beyond Iran (Saudi airstrikes hit Sanaa International Airport on Monday, and the Houthis retaliated on Saudi Arabia’s Abha International Airport, with no casualties reported per US dollar outlook flow context we’ve mapped over the last fortnight).

Multi-Timeframe Read: The GBP/USD Forecast on Daily, H4 and Intraday

On the daily, the story is the failed break. Cable pushed above 1.3400, could not hold, and closed back inside. That is the classic structural cue: a failed break of a round number typically retests the support it left behind, and 1.3357 is that level. The daily read on the pound is compressed, sitting in a range whose ceiling is 1.3400 and whose floor is 1.3357 in the short term, with 1.3300 as the deeper structural pivot and the 1.3150 June low as the floor under the whole thing. Above 1.3400 reclaimed and held, the 1.3489 next resistance comes into play, and 1.3500 sits above as the round-number cap the last attempt could not clear.

H4 is where the fight becomes visible. Price is pinned to 1.3357 with two clean touches into that support since Monday’s rejection, and the shelf is showing tape sensitivity: bids stepping in fast on the first touch, slower on the retest, which is the tell that decides whether a support holds or breaks under a catalyst. The 1.3400 supply above the current price is where sellers reloaded, and it is now the cap that any post-CPI pop has to clear before the structure changes. The MACRO MASTERY desk covers CPI live as the print lands, with the level map open on screen.

Intraday, London opened with cable at 1.3359, DXY 101.20 unchanged, and the 10-year holding 4.61%. The tape is quiet by design: this is a data-day open, and the market is not going to commit ahead of 13:30 BST. What matters is what happens in the sixty seconds after the print, and specifically the reaction on core rather than headline. A soft headline paired with a hot core is the ambush trade, and it is the one the pound is most exposed to, because cable pops on the headline and then gets sold as the core reprints Waller’s trigger.

Scenario Map: How the GBP/USD Forecast Plays on the Print

Bull case for cable (roughly 40% weight)

The bull case is the one that needs a soft print, on both the headline and the core, and it needs Warsh’s tone to lean cautious rather than confirm Waller. In that world, the July hike odds bleed back below 30%, DXY loses the 101.02 support that used to be resistance, and cable takes a run at 1.3400 reclaimed. The confirmation the desk is watching for is a clean H4 close back above 1.3400, not a wick, because a wick is exactly what has produced the failed break the market is now trading. Above 1.3400 held, 1.3489 is the next resistance and 1.3500 the round-number cap above. The desk’s warning stands: take a soft print with a pinch of salt while crude is bid, because June CPI cannot see the July oil pass-through and the trade that unwinds on the headline is the trade that gets re-put on within two weeks.

Bear case for cable (roughly 60% weight)

The bear case is the desk’s higher-weighted read for the reasons the macro setup laid out. A core print at or above 0.2% m/m with the annual sticky at 2.9% is Waller’s trigger by his own words, and the market is already halfway to pricing what that implies. Warsh, ninety minutes later, cannot walk it back without picking a public fight with his own board. In that world, 1.3357 gives way, the failed break of 1.3400 is confirmed, and 1.3300 becomes the immediate objective as the next round support beneath. Below 1.3300 broken and held, the 1.3150 June low is the floor under the whole structure, and that is the level the desk will be watching for the fade of a fade rather than a continuation. The how to trade CPI framework for reading the core-versus-headline split is the exact process the desk runs on every US inflation print.

Final Takeaway on the GBP/USD Forecast

Cable is sitting on the exact line the desk drew yesterday, and today’s US CPI print is the trigger that decides which side of it price closes on. Hold 1.3357 with a soft-enough core, and the pound is merely ranging into Warsh’s testimony. Lose it with a hot core, and the failed break of 1.3400 is confirmed with 1.3300 the next objective and the June low beneath. The trap the desk keeps repeating is the headline: June CPI is structurally blind to the Hormuz toll, the blockade and the two-day 11% Brent move, so a cool headline does not kill the inflation trade. Read core, and read Warsh.

“The headline is the trap. Read core, and read Warsh ninety minutes after. Cable at 1.3357 is the line, and the level decides the day.”

In Short

Cable at 1.3359 sits exactly on 1.3357, the support the failed 1.3400 break is now retesting. US June CPI at 13:30 BST is structurally blind to the Hormuz toll and Brent’s 11% two-day move, so read core, not headline. Waller’s trigger is a hot core, and Warsh testifies ninety minutes after the print.

Educational analysis only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Manage risk against your own portfolio.

Related Reading

• US dollar outlook
• How to trade CPI
• Week ahead
• How to prepare for high-impact data

FAQ

What is the GBP/USD forecast for 14 July 2026?

Cable trades at 1.3359 into today’s US June CPI print at 13:30 BST, sitting exactly on 1.3357 support after Monday’s 1.3400 breakout failed and price was rejected back inside the range. The level decides the day: hold 1.3357 and the pound is ranging, lose it and 1.3300 followed by the 1.3150 June low come into play beneath. Core CPI, not headline, is the number that matters.

Why is 1.3357 the level that matters for cable today?

1.3357 is the support the desk drew after cable’s failed break above 1.3400. A failed break of a round number typically retests the support beneath, and that is what has happened. Price is pinned to 1.3357 with two clean touches into that shelf since Monday’s rejection. Below 1.3357 confirms the failed break with 1.3300 the next objective. Above 1.3400 reclaimed reopens 1.3489.

What are consensus expectations for June US CPI?

Consensus is headline minus 0.1% month-on-month, which would cut the annual rate from 4.2% to about 3.9%, the first monthly decline in four months. Core is expected at plus 0.2% month-on-month with the annual core steady at 2.9%. The desk’s warning is that the negative headline is a mechanical energy base effect, because US pump prices fell about 10% in June, and it says nothing about the July oil pass-through.

How does the Iran oil shock affect the GBP/USD forecast?

The UK is a net energy importer, so a Brent price up roughly 11% in two sessions and now being taxed at 20% through the Strait of Hormuz is a terms-of-trade hit for sterling at the same time as it is feeding the US dollar’s inflation story via a repriced Federal Reserve. That is a double drag on cable: weaker pound fundamentals stacked on top of a stronger dollar rate bid, which is why the failed 1.3400 break is being sold rather than bought.

What did Fed Governor Waller say about a July rate hike?

In his 13 July speech, Governor Christopher Waller said that if there is another hot reading on core inflation, the FOMC “will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term”. He refused to repeat “the mistake we made in 2021 by not responding sooner”. He balanced it with caveats about fighting the last war and noted the labour market is looser than 2021 and inflation expectations are anchored near 2%. But the trigger is public: a hot core.

How much does the market price for a July Fed hike now?

A 29 July hike is priced at about 43% on CME FedWatch (43.3% hike against 56.7% no change, zero for a cut, contract ZQN6). CNBC has quoted the odds as high as 46.5% intraday. Kalshi shows the same hike at 36%, up from under 20% on Sunday and under 10% earlier this month. Fed funds sit at 3.50 to 3.75%; a hike takes the range to 3.75 to 4.00%.

Why does Warsh’s House testimony matter for the GBP/USD forecast?

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies to the House Financial Services Committee at 15:00 BST, ninety minutes after the CPI print, on his debut semiannual testimony. He cannot dodge the number. A hawkish tone that confirms Waller’s trigger pulls the July hike further into play and extends the dollar bid, dragging cable through 1.3357. A cautious tone that leans against the pricing gives the pound room to test 1.3400 from below.

Sources: TwelveData and Yahoo Finance cross-verified for GBP/USD, DXY, EUR/USD and gold (snapshot 2026-07-14 08:05 BST). FRED for US 10-year yield. CME FedWatch and Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor for the July hike pricing (contract ZQN6), with Kalshi and CNBC for the odds trajectory. Federal Reserve Board speech page for Governor Waller’s 13 July remarks, corroborated by CNBC and Wolf Street. TradingEconomics, Kiplinger, IG and FactSet for CPI consensus. CNBC, The Hill and POLIT