EUR/USD Forecast 9 July: Capped Under 1.1475 Into CPI

By Ken Chigbo · Founder, KenMacro · 18+ years in markets, London trading floor and institutional FX

Find Ken on X @realkenchigbo · YouTube @Realkenchigbo · MACRO MASTERY Discord

Updated 2026-07-09 08:30 BST

The euro is doing exactly what a fake-out day tells it to do. Three sessions of gains have stalled under 1.1475, the dollar refused to hold its hawkish Fed bid, and the tape has flipped to consolidation into next week’s US CPI. This is not a trend day. This is a range that the market is trying to read.

The Macro Setup Behind Today’s EUR/USD Forecast

Yesterday’s June FOMC minutes did the hawkish thing. The committee held at 3.50 to 3.75%, flagged upside inflation risks from AI investment, tariffs and the Middle East, and a few officials judged another hike could become appropriate. Chair Warsh withheld his own dot. In a clean tape, that reads dollar-up. This is not a clean tape. The dollar failed to hold the gains and DXY is chopping in a 100.31 to 101.50 corridor, printing 100.85 with the 200-period average at 101.02 capping and the 50-period at 99.90 beneath. That is the fake-out, and it is why the euro caught a bid it structurally should not have.

The mechanism behind the near-term chop is straightforward. Softer US growth and labour data cut against the hawkish read from the minutes, so the market is refusing to pay up for the dollar until it sees the June US CPI print on Tuesday 14 July at 8:30 ET. May CPI was +4.2% year-on-year and the June nowcast sits around 3.96%, still sticky, still elevated. The 10-year yield at 4.57% is doing the structural work in the background (via the Federal Reserve) while WTI has surged around 10% over two sessions on the Strait of Hormuz escalation. Higher yields plus higher oil is a dollar-supportive cocktail. The market just is not drinking it today.

Overnight the picture hardened. Per Al Jazeera and CNN reporting, the US launched a second night of strikes hitting 90 Iranian military targets along the coast (Bushehr, Chabahar, Golestan). Iran retaliated on 85 US targets in Bahrain and Kuwait, including the US Fifth Naval Base and Ali Salem airbase. Trump says the memorandum of understanding is over. The oil impulse re-arms the inflation trade, which structurally leans dollar-up and reinforces higher-for-longer, and it is precisely the reason the desk still maps a lower-high risk on EUR/USD even as the near-term tape drifts. The full live read on this is the kind of thing the MACRO MASTERY desk covers as CPI prints land.

Historical analogue worth stapling to the wall: EUR/USD has repeatedly traded as the cleanest expression of the Fed path. Every cycle where the euro bounces into a hawkish Fed while yields stay elevated, the pattern is the same, a stall beneath the psychological handle, then a rollover as the dollar reasserts. A bounce that stalls under 1.15 while the Fed stays higher-for-longer is exactly the lower-high risk we map into CPI.

Multi-Timeframe Read on the EUR/USD Forecast

On the daily, the structure is a correction inside a broader range. EUR/USD at 1.1410 has slipped from a three-day bounce that never cleared 1.1475, which puts price back inside the top half of the 1.1400 to 1.1500 corridor. The 1.1400 round support is doing double duty as the 23.6% fib retracement of the multi-year rally, which is why the desk treats it as the structural line rather than a mere handle. A daily close below it opens the 1.1370 shelf, and only a break of that shelf validates the deeper 1.1320 objective.

Step down to H4 and the tape is textbook chop. The bounce from the range base printed a lower high under 1.1475, and the pullback is orderly rather than impulsive, which is the signature of positioning being trimmed into event risk rather than trend rotation. This is the tape that the desk reads as “wait for CPI”, not “chase the move”. Intraday, the euro is respecting the mid-range mechanically. The bid steps in near 1.1400, the offer steps in near 1.1475, and until one of those two edges gives on a closing basis, the range is the range.

The DXY tape confirms the read. A 100.31 to 101.50 corridor with the 200-period average capping at 101.02 and the 50-period floor at 99.90 is a market pinned by conflicting signals, hawkish minutes above, soft data below. The US dollar outlook the desk published earlier this week walks through the mechanics in detail. The five-lens framework used to build reads like this is unpacked inside the MACRO MASTERY desk.

Scenario Map for the EUR/USD Forecast

Bull case (fake-out extends). If the dollar’s failure to hold the hawkish-minutes bid deepens ahead of CPI, EUR/USD tends to grind toward the 1.1475 supply again. A clean H4 close above 1.1475 opens the 1.1500 pivot, and this is where the read gets serious. A weekly close back above 1.1500 is the only condition that flips the desk constructive on the euro, because it retakes the round-number line the structural bear case has been leaning on. Without that weekly hold, any push above 1.1475 stays a fake-out inside the range. The catalyst that would fuel this leg is a softer-than-expected June CPI print on 14 July, which is not the base case but is very much on the table.

Bear case (lower-high rolls over). If the tape prints a lower high beneath 1.1475 and rolls back over, the 1.1400 round support is the first test. A daily close below 1.1400 breaks the 23.6% fib and opens the 1.1370 shelf. The confirmed break lower, meaning a daily close below 1.1370, puts the 1.1320 objective on the map. This is the path the structural picture leans toward, elevated yields at 4.57%, surging oil, higher-for-longer Fed, all of which reassert once CPI resolves the current chop. A hot CPI print on Tuesday is the accelerant.

Final Takeaway on the EUR/USD Forecast

The desk reads EUR/USD as a range trade with a lower-high risk into CPI, not a trend. The 1.1400 to 1.1475 corridor is doing the mechanical work, the fake-out from the hawkish minutes has bought the euro a few sessions of grind, and the structural bear case (yields, oil, higher-for-longer) waits for Tuesday’s print to reassert. Above 1.1500 on a weekly close, the read changes. Beneath 1.1400 on a daily close, it accelerates. Between them, it is chop.

“A bounce that stalls under a psychological handle while the Fed stays higher-for-longer is not strength. It is a fake-out looking for confirmation.”

EUR/USD Forecast FAQ

Educational analysis only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Manage risk against your own portfolio.

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Sources: TradingEconomics, Investing.com, FXStreet, Barchart, LiteFinance, RoboForex, CNBC, the Federal Reserve, CNN, Al Jazeera, Times of Israel, Gulf News. Snapshot cross-referenced 2026-07-09 08:30 BST.