GBP/USD Forecast: Cable Breaks Below Moving Averages
By Ken Chigbo, Founder, KenMacro. 18+ years in markets, London trading floor and institutional FX.
Updated 2026-07-01 08:30 BST.
Quick Answer
The GBP/USD forecast into 1 July 2026 leans dollar-bid. Cable is trading at 1.3235, under both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, capped by the mid-1.34s and pressing the 1.3150 to 1.3170 shelf. Direction now runs through ADP, ISM Manufacturing, Warsh at Sintra, and tomorrow’s Non Farm Payrolls print.
Named Levels Worth Watching, GBP/USD
Upside liquidity (resistance)
↓ 1.3450, the mid-1.34s cap. First real ceiling and the level a reclaim needs to hold above to question the bearish structure.
Downside liquidity (support and objectives)
↑ 1.3170, the top of the key support shelf, first liquidity below current price.
↑ 1.3150, the base of the shelf. A break of roughly 1.3158 arms the next leg lower.
↑ 1.3000, the major round-number floor under the whole structure.
↑ 1.2948, the projected objective on a clean break of the 1.3150 shelf.
The Macro Setup Behind This GBP/USD Forecast
Cable is being sold, and it is a dollar story more than a pound story. Sterling sits at 1.3235, trading under both its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, while the DXY holds the 101 handle and prints its second straight monthly advance of more than two percent. That is the strongest dollar run since last summer. When the dollar carves a higher low and points at a higher high, the majors confirm, and this morning EUR/USD is fighting the 1.14 to 1.15 neckline at 1.1407, gold is offered at 3,987 near an eight-month low, and cable is losing the shelf above. The desk reads it as one regime, not three separate stories.
The engine behind this is Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Fed. The FOMC held the target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent on 17 June with a hike-leaning message, and since then a Middle East energy bid has pushed WTI firm and erased what was left of this year’s rate-cut bets. The market is now leaning toward a possible September hike, which is a full 180 from where the curve was priced in April. Front-end yields are firm, gold is heading for a fourth straight monthly decline of roughly 11 percent, and the pound has no help from its own side of the trade with the UK backdrop softer and fiscal noise still bleeding through. This is policy divergence in plain sight, and the desk’s full live read on it drops daily inside the MACRO MASTERY desk.
The catalyst stack today is dense. ADP National Employment Change lands with consensus at about +118,000 versus +122,000 prior, a first read on the labour market. ISM Manufacturing PMI hits at 10:00 ET, and the desk is watching the prices-paid sub-index as an inflation tell after the May print at 54.0. Then Warsh sits on the ECB Sintra policy panel at roughly 13:00 GMT alongside Lagarde, Bailey and Macklem in his first major international appearance as Chair. Yesterday’s JOLTS job openings came in strong, keeping the labour read firm. And tomorrow, brought forward ahead of 4 July, is Non Farm Payrolls with average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate. That is Warsh’s first payrolls print as Chair and the week’s main event. Cable typically tracks the broad dollar into a data run like this, so the desk treats direction here as mostly a dollar story with the UK leg secondary. For the wider dollar picture, our US dollar outlook lays out the regime shift in full.
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Multi-Timeframe Read on the GBP/USD Forecast
On the daily, cable has broken the structure it built through the spring. Price is trading beneath both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, and the eased move from the mid-1.34s down to 1.3235 is a clean impulse rather than a corrective drift. The daily read is bearish while the market holds under those averages and under the mid-1.34s cap. A reclaim of 1.3450 that holds is what would question that, not a wick.
On the H4, the tape is compressing into the 1.3150 to 1.3170 shelf. That shelf is the top of first liquidity below current price and is where the desk expects a genuine test into the data run. Consequently, the H4 story becomes binary at the shelf: absorb the seller and cable can bounce back toward the low 1.33s to test the underside of the broken averages; break clean through 1.3158 and the 1.2948 objective is armed with 1.3000 as the deeper round-number floor. By contrast, the intraday tape into 08:30 BST reads as offered rallies. That behaviour is textbook dollar-bid, and the MACRO MASTERY desk covers the ADP, ISM and NFP prints live as they land.
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Scenario Map for the GBP/USD Forecast
Bull case. ADP misses to the downside, ISM prices-paid softens, and Warsh delivers a measured Sintra panel that walks back some of the September-hike lean. In this scenario, cable tends to bounce off the 1.3150 to 1.3170 shelf and drift back toward the low 1.33s, where the underside of the 50 and 100-day averages sits. The real invalidation of the bearish read only arrives on a reclaim and hold back above the mid-1.34s cap at 1.3450. Anything short of that keeps the daily structure broken and rallies vulnerable. The bull case is a mean-reversion story, not a trend flip.
Bear case. ADP prints firm, ISM prices-paid comes in hot as an inflation tell, Warsh holds the hawkish line at Sintra, and NFP tomorrow confirms the labour market is not rolling. In this scenario, cable tends to lose the 1.3150 to 1.3170 shelf, and a break of roughly 1.3158 arms the 1.2948 objective. Below that, the major floor is the 1.3000 round number. Meanwhile the dollar prints its higher high, EUR/USD loses the 1.14 neckline, and gold breaks the 3,950 range floor. This is the regime-continuation scenario and it is the one the current tape is priced for.
What Would Invalidate the Read
A daily close back above the 1.3450 mid-1.34s cap. A soft ADP paired with cool ISM prices-paid and a dovish walk-back from Warsh at Sintra. A weak Non Farm Payrolls print tomorrow that revives September rate-cut pricing and takes DXY back under the 101 handle. Any one of these on its own is not enough; two of them together forces the desk to step back from the bearish read.
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Final Takeaway on the GBP/USD Forecast
Cable is a dollar story, and the dollar is bid. Sterling under both moving averages, capped by 1.3450 and pressing the 1.3150 to 1.3170 shelf, is the structural picture into a data run that runs ADP, ISM, Warsh at Sintra and Non Farm Payrolls back-to-back. The level the desk is watching is 1.3158; the pivot that questions everything is 1.3450. For the pound-specific read, our GBP/USD forecast hub and the world interest rates tracker are the two references that sit next to this article on the desk’s morning routine. The same stack a hedge-fund analyst runs every morning is delivered daily via MACRO MASTERY.
Cable is not being sold because of Britain. It is being sold because the dollar has found its next leg, and the pound is the vehicle it is running through.
In Short
GBP/USD at 1.3235 is trading under the 50 and 100-day averages with the mid-1.34s cap above and the 1.3150 to 1.3170 shelf below. The dollar is running its second month higher and ADP, ISM, Sintra and NFP are the catalysts. 1.3158 is the break level, 1.3450 is the invalidation.
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GBP/USD Forecast, Frequently Asked Questions
Why is GBP/USD falling on 1 July 2026?
Cable is falling because the US dollar is running its second consecutive month higher, up more than two percent, on a hawkish Kevin Warsh Fed that held rates at 3.50 to 3.75 percent in June and a Middle East energy bid that has erased this year’s rate-cut pricing. GBP/USD at 1.3235 is trading beneath its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, confirming the broken structure.
What are the key GBP/USD support levels this week?
The primary GBP/USD support zone is the 1.3150 to 1.3170 shelf, with 1.3170 as first liquidity and 1.3150 as the shelf base. A break of roughly 1.3158 arms 1.2948 as the projected objective. Below that, 1.3000 is the major round-number floor sitting under the whole structure. Above price, 1.3450 in the mid-1.34s is the cap that invalidates the bearish read on a reclaim.
How will ADP and NFP affect GBP/USD this week?
ADP employment lands 1 July with consensus at about +118,000, and Non Farm Payrolls is brought forward to 2 July ahead of Independence Day. Strong prints reinforce the hawkish Fed lean toward a possible September hike and pressure GBP/USD lower. Soft prints revive rate-cut pricing and can lift cable back toward the mid-1.33s where the underside of the broken moving averages sits.
What is Kevin Warsh saying at ECB Sintra?
Kevin Warsh joins Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey and Tiff Macklem on the ECB Sintra policy panel at about 13:00 GMT on 1 July. It is his first major international appearance as Fed Chair. The theme is innovation, growth and financial stability implications of AI. Any hawkish reinforcement of the September-hike lean adds to dollar bid and weighs on GBP/USD; any dovish walk-back can lift cable.
Is GBP/USD bearish or bullish in July 2026?
The GBP/USD forecast into early July 2026 is bearish while cable trades under the 50-day and 100-day moving averages and holds beneath the 1.3450 mid-1.34s cap. The primary risk case is a break of 1.3158 that arms 1.2948, with 1.3000 as the deeper round-number floor. The bearish read is only invalidated on a daily close reclaim and hold above 1.3450.
What is driving the US dollar higher in July 2026?
The dollar is running on three drivers. First, a hawkish Kevin Warsh Fed that held rates at 3.50 to 3.75 percent in June with a hike-leaning message. Second, a Middle East energy bid that has pushed crude firm and erased this year’s rate-cut bets, leaving the market leaning toward a possible September hike. Third, firm US labour data including strong JOLTS job openings. DXY is on the 101 handle.
What level would flip the GBP/USD forecast bullish?
A daily close reclaim and hold back above 1.3450, the mid-1.34s cap, is the structural pivot that questions the bearish GBP/USD forecast. Anything short of that keeps cable’s
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