EUR/USD Forecast 2026: ECB vs Fed Desk Read
The eur usd forecast hinges on the ECB versus Fed rate gap and relative growth. EUR/USD trades at 1.1233, with 1.1198 the nearest level the market has defended. Ken’s desk note for this session has not published yet, so the read below is the standing framework and an automated levels scan, not today’s desk view. Live levels and scenarios are below.
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Ken’s Take. The euro is about 1.1205, against Friday’s close of 1.1167, after the 2026 low at 1.1107 on Thursday. Ken’s video for today is on this page. He calls today a typical Monday: careful positioning ahead of tomorrow’s United States midterm elections, and what happens after them matters more than today’s price. He reads last week’s gold sell off as a large rotation out of gold and into Treasuries while the geopolitical tension stays high. On Iran he says to take the reports of Trump favouring diplomacy with a pinch of salt: Trump told reporters the talks are going fine and he is in no hurry, while Israel is reported to be pressing for strikes after the midterms. Ken sides with the Israeli read and thinks escalation is still likely, which keeps the inflation trade alive. On the euro, Ken sees a range, capped on the upside toward 1.13, and he knows many traders are watching a possible double bottom at the lows, which were defended hard. He does not want to buy into it: a pullback higher is fine, but he expects that pullback to be sold at some point, with the euro underperforming the dollar while the inflation trade holds.
What changed. Last week the data said the Federal Reserve is not finished: third quarter GDP beat at 3.4 per cent, core PCE held at 3.1 per cent and Dallas Fed President Logan said at least two more hikes are needed. The bond market went the other way, because Friday’s sell off in technology shares did some of the tightening for the Fed: the Nasdaq fell 2.9 per cent and Intel 28.6 per cent. Treasury official closes had the 2 year at 4.56 per cent on Friday, down 13 basis points on the week, while the 30 year fell only 2 to 5.31. December hike odds, on this desk’s calculation from fed funds futures, slid from about 87 per cent on Wednesday to about 70 per cent on Friday and are near 76 per cent this morning. Gold fell 3.6 per cent to a one year low on Friday even as real yields and the dollar fell, which reads as forced selling rather than Fed pricing. Overnight, Iran’s talks with Qatar in Doha pulled January Brent to about 110 dollars from Friday’s 113.43 settle, a fall of about 2.8 per cent; screens showing 6 per cent are comparing it with the expired December contract. Washington has not publicly answered Iran’s two day plan, and the midterms are tomorrow. For the euro, the lows at 1.1113 on Wednesday and 1.1107 on Thursday held, Friday closed at 1.1167 and the euro is near 1.1205 this morning after a high at 1.1240, its first trade above the 20 day average since the middle of October. Lower oil is the likely reason.
Main driver. Oil through the terms of trade, and a softer Federal Reserve path, not euro strength. The European Central Bank held at 2.50 per cent unanimously on Thursday after debating a hike, and Lagarde will step down in February. Germany’s 2.8 per cent October inflation is flattered by a temporary fuel tax cut that runs to 31 December, so it is not disinflation. The key tension is unchanged: a central bank hiking into stagnation does not help the euro the way a Federal Reserve hiking into 3.4 per cent growth helps the dollar.
What the desk is watching. Doha first. A warm United States reply to Iran’s two day plan is the biggest euro positive available, because lower oil fixes Europe’s energy bill, while talks failing and Brent back above 115 is the biggest negative. Then ISM at 15:00 for the dollar side and euro area flash inflation on Wednesday at 10:00, where the German tax cut makes the forecasts unusually wide. French bonds stay in view, with the spread over Bunds near 165 basis points before the 17 November budget vote.
Key liquidity areas. Overhead, the liquidity sits above today’s 1.1240 high and last week’s 1.1223 to 1.1255 highs, then toward 1.1300, the cap Ken marks on the range. That is where he expects a pullback higher to be sold. Beneath, the stops sit under Friday’s 1.1167 close and 1.1137 low, then under the double bottom at 1.1107 to 1.1113 that many traders are watching, then the round 1.1100, then 1.1050 and 1.1000.
Key levels. Resistance begins at 1.1223 to 1.1255 which is today’s high and last week’s highs, then 1.1300 which is Ken’s cap on the range, then 1.1389 which is the 50 day average. Support begins at 1.1197 which is the 20 day average, then 1.1167 which is Friday’s close, then 1.1137 which is Friday’s low, then 1.1107 to 1.1113 which is the double bottom and the 2026 low, then 1.1050, then 1.1000.
Key technical levels. A range with a possible double bottom, inside a downtrend, as Ken describes it. The euro made the 2026 low twice, at 1.1113 on Wednesday and 1.1107 on Thursday, and has bounced to about 1.1205, just above the 20 day average at 1.1197 on this desk’s settled weekday closes. The longer averages are well above and falling: the 50 day at 1.1389, the 100 day at 1.1432 and the 200 day at 1.1559. Ken expects rallies to be sold rather than a new uptrend, and a daily close beneath 1.1107 would break the double bottom.
What would invalidate the view. The bearish structure stays valid while the euro holds beneath 1.1300 on a daily close, with the pullback sold back toward 1.1107 and then 1.1000 as the objectives; the clean version is Doha stalling, oil firm and a hot ISM. A daily close above 1.1300 breaks Ken’s cap on the range and opens the 50 day average near 1.1389; the clean version of that is a signed Hormuz deal with oil falling toward 105 dollars and soft United States data.
Data and event risk. Monday 2 November: the final manufacturing PMIs this morning, United States ISM manufacturing at 15:00, the Treasury borrowing estimates this evening and Apple after the United States close. Tuesday 3 November: the Reserve Bank of Australia at 03:30, the United States midterm elections and a holiday in Japan. Wednesday 4 November: euro area flash inflation at 10:00, ADP at 13:15, the Treasury refunding at 13:30 and ISM services at 15:00. Thursday 5 November: the Bank of England at 12:00 with a new Monetary Policy Report. Friday 6 November: United States payrolls at 13:30. United States clocks changed on 1 November, so United States data is back at 13:30 London.
Educational only, not financial advice. The note above is the desk’s read on the date shown. Trading is leveraged and most retail accounts lose money.
Cross-asset tape reads mixed (dollar bias neutral, vol elevated). Driver in the feed: “Trump: no plans to alter personnel in his administration, backs Pete Hegseth – WSJ” (Financial Juice).
| 1.1237 | pivot R2 + pivot R3 + round 1.125 |
| 1.1371 | round 1.135 + 50 SMA daily |
| 1.1198 | prior day low + pivot S1 + daily pivot P |
| 1.1150 | pivot S3 + round 1.115 + pivot S2 |
| 1.1110 | round 1.11 + prior week low |
Levels from the desk’s six lens confluence scan, refreshed each session. Positioning structure, not a trade instruction. Trading carries risk; most retail accounts lose money.
What actually moves EUR/USD
EUR/USD is the world’s most traded pair and at heart it is a rate differential story. The euro tends to firm against the dollar when the market expects the European Central Bank to hold rates higher relative to the Federal Reserve, and it tends to soften when the Fed is expected to stay tighter for longer. That is why the pair reacts so sharply to inflation prints and central bank meetings on both sides of the Atlantic: each one reprices the gap between the two policy paths.
Relative growth and risk appetite layer on top. A stronger euro area growth surprise narrows the gap the market expects and supports the euro. Broad dollar strength in a risk off episode can override the rate story for a while, since the dollar is the world’s haven. The desk reads EUR/USD as the ECB path minus the Fed path, adjusted for who is growing and where global risk appetite sits.
How the desk reads the chart
EUR/USD respects clean horizontal structure and the big round figures, which makes the level map below the spine of the read. The near term bias stays constructive for the euro while price holds its nearest defended support and prints higher lows; it turns heavy when a support that held repeatedly breaks on a closing basis. The named levels are drawn from a six lens confluence scan, prior day and weekly extremes, round numbers, moving averages, pivots and the volume point of control, rather than from a single indicator.
This is positioning structure, not a trade signal. It shows where the market has defended price so you can build your own plan and risk around it.
Frequently asked questions
What is the EUR/USD forecast right now?
The live read at the top of this page is refreshed every session with the current EUR/USD rate, the day’s move and the nearest support and resistance from the desk’s level scan. Direction hinges on the ECB versus Fed rate gap: when the market expects the ECB to stay relatively tighter, the euro tends to firm, and the reverse when the Fed is expected to hold higher for longer.
What drives EUR/USD?
EUR/USD is mainly a rate differential trade. The euro firms when the European Central Bank is expected to hold rates higher relative to the Federal Reserve, and softens when the Fed is expected to stay tighter. Relative growth surprises and global risk appetite layer on top, with the dollar’s haven status able to override the rate story during risk off episodes.
Will EUR/USD go up in 2026?
That depends on the path of the rate gap. If the Fed eases faster than the ECB, the differential narrows in the euro’s favour and EUR/USD tends to grind higher. If the Fed holds while the ECB cuts, the dollar tends to win. The desk tracks both central bank paths and frames bias by structure rather than a fixed year end target.
What are the key levels for EUR/USD?
The named levels card above lists the current support and resistance zones, each from a six lens confluence scan and tagged with why it matters, for example a prior weekly high or a round figure. The levels refresh every session as structure shifts, so the page always shows the live map.
Is EUR/USD a buy at current levels?
The desk does not post buy or sell instructions here. It posts the structure: where the rate sits versus defended support and overhead resistance and what would flip the near term bias. Use that to frame your own plan and risk. Trading carries risk and most retail accounts lose money.
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EUR/USD turns on the ECB versus Fed path. The free KenMacro framework is the same risk-first, macro-aware approach behind this desk view, built so you can apply it to your own trading.
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