MOVE Index: The VIX for the Bond Market
Macro Glossary, Indicators and Reads
By Ken Chigbo, macro trader and founder of KenMacro, 18+ years in markets.
Updated 2026-05-20
The desk’s answer
The MOVE index is the ICE BofA MOVE Index, the implied volatility of one-month Treasury options across the 2, 5, 10 and 30-year tenors, yield-curve weighted. It is the bond-market VIX: 80 to 100 is normal, 120 to 140 is elevated, above 150 is stress, above 200 is rare (March 2020, March 2023 SVB) and signals genuine rates instability. The MOVE often leads equity VIX and credit spreads in macro stress because the rates market is where central-bank reaction-function uncertainty is priced first.
Defined term, MOVE index
The MOVE index is the ICE BofA MOVE Index, a yield-curve-weighted average of the implied volatility of one-month Treasury options across the 2, 5, 10 and 30-year maturities. It is the bond-market equivalent of the VIX and is a primary gauge of rates and macro volatility, often leading equity volatility and credit spreads in stress regimes.
How the MOVE is constructed
The MOVE averages the implied volatility of at-the-money one-month options on the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year and 30-year US Treasury futures, weighted by their relative yield-curve duration contribution. The result is annualised basis-point volatility. A MOVE of 120 means the bond market is pricing roughly 120 basis points of annualised standard deviation on the curve over the next month, or about 7.5 basis points expected daily move. Compared to a normal level of 80 to 100, that is meaningfully elevated. The index has existed since 1988 and has spiked above 200 only a handful of times: October 2008, March 2020, March 2023.
Why MOVE leads other risk gauges
Rates volatility is where central-bank reaction-function uncertainty trades first. When the market is uncertain whether the Fed will hike or cut by 25 or 50 basis points, the front-end of the curve trades wildly and the MOVE rises. This uncertainty then propagates into equity volatility (higher discount-rate variance) and credit spreads (higher refinancing risk). In the March 2023 SVB episode, the MOVE spiked from 130 to 200 within 48 hours, while the VIX took several days to follow. Macro desks watch the MOVE alongside the VIX precisely because of this lead-lag relationship.
Reading MOVE for cross-asset trades
Three signals. First, a rising MOVE with a stable VIX usually precedes a VIX move higher; the rates market is leading. Second, MOVE level absolute: above 130 indicates the bond market is pricing meaningful rate-path uncertainty, which is bullish for safe-haven currencies (USD, JPY, CHF) and bearish for risk pairs. Third, MOVE and the dollar funding basis: a rising MOVE with a widening EUR/USD basis is the classic dollar-stress combination, often a setup for sharp dollar strength as funding scarcity bids it.
Frequently asked
What is the MOVE index?
The ICE BofA MOVE Index, a yield-curve-weighted average of the implied volatility of one-month US Treasury options across the 2, 5, 10 and 30-year maturities. It is the bond-market equivalent of the VIX and a primary gauge of rates and macro volatility.
Why is the MOVE called the bond market’s VIX?
Because both measure implied volatility from the options market, the MOVE on Treasury futures and the VIX on the S and P 500. The MOVE often leads the VIX in macro stress because rate-path uncertainty is priced in bonds before it propagates into equity and credit.
What MOVE level is high?
80 to 100 is normal, 120 to 140 is elevated, above 150 is stress, above 200 is rare and signals genuine rates instability. Extreme prints have occurred in October 2008, March 2020 COVID, and March 2023 SVB; each was a major cross-asset event.
What this means at the desk
Read the MOVE before the VIX. Rates volatility leads risk volatility in most macro regimes.
Read next from the desk
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