EUR/USD Forecast 8 July: Lower High Under 1.15 Pivot
By Ken Chigbo · Founder, KenMacro · 18+ years in markets, London trading floor and institutional FX
Updated 2026-07-08 08:30 BST · spot EUR/USD 1.1410 · DXY 100.87 · US10Y 4.50%
The EUR/USD forecast for 8 July 2026 leans bearish while price trades at 1.1410 under the 1.15 pivot. Oil is surging on the Strait of Hormuz escalation, the US 10-year yield sits at 4.50% (a two-week high), and the June FOMC minutes at 7pm BST are the decider. Under 1.15 the euro carves a lower high; below 1.14 the downtrend re-arms toward 1.1370 then 1.1320.
Named Levels To Watch
Levels the desk is tracking. Not trade ideas.
Upside liquidity (resistance) ↑
- 1.1480 , the immediate resistance the bounce keeps stalling under. First liquidity above spot.
- 1.1500 , the pivot the euro has to reclaim and hold. The desk only flips constructive on a weekly close back above.
Downside liquidity (objectives) ↓
- 1.1400 , base of the range and the 23.6% retracement of the 2022 to 2026 rally. A weekly close below re-arms the downtrend.
- 1.1370 , the next support just beneath the retracement.
- 1.1320 , the objective on a confirmed break lower.
The Macro Setup Behind Today’s EUR/USD Forecast
This is a dollar move dressed up as a euro move. Oil is surging, WTI 72.61 (+3.07%) and Brent 76.49 (+3.14%), after Iran attacked three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on 7 July, the US struck 80-plus Iranian targets and revoked Iran’s oil-sale waiver, and Iran retaliated against US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait (per CNN, CBS, Axios, Al Jazeera and TWZ). The mechanism the desk keeps flagging is simple: an oil spike re-arms the inflation impulse, which means higher-for-longer rates, a hawkish Fed and dollar upside. The US 10-year yield is already at 4.50%, a two-week high per FRED, and looks coiled to break higher.
The DXY is doing exactly what a dollar in a higher-low build should do: consolidating under 101, grinding the early-101 liquidity while it waits for confirmation. It pushed up yesterday on the yield jump and now sits between the rising 50-period average near 99.90 and the 101.02 to 101.50 resistance band. Consequently the euro is capped below 1.15, the pound has lost the 1.3355 area with the 200-day average gone, and gold is under pressure at 4123 as real yields firm. This is the inflation trade, and the desk’s line is that it continues either way. The full live read on this regime is the kind of thing that drops daily inside the MACRO MASTERY desk.
The decider lands today. The June FOMC minutes drop at 2pm ET (7pm BST), and they carry unusual weight because Chair Warsh withheld his own dot in the June projections, leaving the minutes as the committee’s only on-record read on a possible September hike. The June dot plot was hawkish (9 of 18 officials projected at least one hike by end-2026, 8 no change, 1 cut) and the June projections revised inflation up. Market-implied September hike odds are around 58%, up from 56%. June CPI on 14 July is next, and the desk expects it to show inflation still sticky. Historically EUR/USD trades as the cleanest expression of the Fed path, so a euro that leaks while the Fed leans hawkish and oil-driven yields climb is exactly the lower-high risk we map under 1.15. For the wider dollar picture, the US dollar outlook pillar sets out the full framework.
Multi-Timeframe Read: Why The EUR/USD Forecast Says Lower High
On the daily, EUR/USD is stalling under a well-defined 1.15 pivot with lower highs stacking. The 1.14 area is not arbitrary support, it is the 23.6% retracement of the entire 2022 to 2026 rally, which is why price keeps testing and holding it for now. However, the character of that hold has changed: the bounces are shallower, the rejections from 1.1480 are cleaner, and the daily closes are drifting lower. Furthermore, this is happening while DXY builds its higher low, which is textbook cross-verification of the dollar-repricing thesis.
On the H4 the picture tightens. Price is capped below 1.1480, the level the bounce keeps stalling under, and the 1.1400 base is being tested with less conviction each time. In practice the tape has been that of a market waiting for a catalyst, not one absorbing supply. The catalyst is today’s minutes. The MACRO MASTERY desk covers FOMC minutes live as the prints land, and the euro’s reaction into and after 7pm BST is the tape to read.
Intraday, the range is 1.1400 to 1.1480. The desk’s read is a lower high inside that box: while spot stays under 1.15 the risk is a roll back toward 1.14, and on a weekly close below 1.14 the move lower resumes toward 1.1370 then 1.1320. By contrast, a weekly hold back above 1.15 flips the desk constructive. Anything in between is noise until the minutes land.
Scenario Map
Bear scenario (60%) , the base case
The FOMC minutes read hawkish, confirming the June projections’ upward inflation revision and keeping September hike odds elevated. Oil stays bid on the Hormuz escalation, the US 10-year breaks above 4.50%, and DXY confirms its higher low with a push into the 101.02 to 101.50 band. In this scenario EUR/USD tends to drift back toward 1.1400, and a weekly close below the 23.6% retracement re-arms the downtrend toward 1.1370 then 1.1320. This is the lower-high path the desk is mapping. The named levels to watch on the way down are 1.1400 first, then 1.1370, with 1.1320 the confirmed-break objective.
Bull scenario (40%) , the invalidation path
The minutes read softer than the June dots suggested, September hike odds fade back toward 50%, or a Hormuz de-escalation headline caps oil. In that mix DXY loses its higher-low build and rolls back through 100, real yields ease, and EUR/USD reclaims 1.1480 on a closing basis before pushing at the 1.15 pivot. A weekly hold back above 1.15 is what flips the desk constructive. Without that reclaim the bull case stays a bounce, not a trend change.
What Would Invalidate The Read
A weekly close above 1.15 with DXY losing 99.90 and the US 10-year rolling back below 4.30% would invalidate the lower-high thesis. Equally, a dovish tilt inside the FOMC minutes that fades September hike odds under 45%, or a verified Strait of Hormuz de-escalation that unwinds the oil bid, would force a reassessment. Until one of those lands the desk sits with the dollar’s higher-low build.
Final Takeaway On The EUR/USD Forecast
While EUR/USD trades under 1.15 with oil surging and the US 10-year at 4.50%, the euro is carving a lower high and the risk sits on the downside toward 1.1370 then 1.1320. The June FOMC minutes at 7pm BST are the decider, and June CPI on 14 July is the follow-up. The desk only flips constructive on a weekly close back above 1.15; anything short of that keeps the inflation-trade dollar bid in play. Same stack a hedge-fund analyst runs every morning, delivered via MACRO MASTERY.
The desk’s live read on this move
FOMC minutes today, CPI on 14 July, ECB on 23 July, Fed on 28-29 July. The MACRO MASTERY desk covers each print live as it lands, with the levels the euro is defending and the dollar’s higher-low build tracked in real time.
See also: how to prepare for high-impact data · how to trade NFP
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the EUR/USD forecast for 8 July 2026?
The desk’s EUR/USD forecast for 8 July 2026 is bearish while price trades under 1.15. Spot is 1.1410, capped below the pivot, with oil surging on the Strait of Hormuz escalation and the US 10-year at 4.50%, a two-week high. The June FOMC minutes at 7pm BST are the decider. Under 1.15 the euro carves a lower high; below 1.14 the downtrend re-arms toward 1.1370 then 1.1320.
Why is EUR/USD under pressure right now?
EUR/USD is under pressure because the dollar is repricing higher on the back of a re-igniting inflation trade. Iran attacked three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on 7 July, the US retaliated with strikes on 80-plus Iranian targets and revoked Iran’s oil-sale waiver, oil is surging (WTI +3.07%, Brent +3.14%), and the US 10-year yield has climbed to 4.50%. Higher yields plus a hawkish Fed press the euro lower.
What level does EUR/USD need to hold to stay bullish?
EUR/USD needs to reclaim and hold 1.15 on a weekly closing basis to flip the desk constructive. 1.15 is the pivot the euro has been capped under, and 1.1480 is the immediate resistance the bounce keeps stalling below. Without a weekly close back above 1.15, any bounce is treated as a lower high inside the broader dollar-repricing regime, not a trend change.
What happens if EUR/USD breaks below 1.14?
A weekly close below 1.14 re-arms the downtrend. The 1.14 area is the 23.6% retracement of the 2022 to 2026 rally, so it is a structural anchor, not just a round number. On a confirmed break the next support is 1.1370, and the objective on continuation is 1.1320. The desk maps that path as the base case if the FOMC minutes read hawkish and the US 10-year breaks above 4.50%.
How do the FOMC minutes affect EUR/USD?
The June FOMC minutes carry unusual weight because Chair Warsh withheld his own dot in the June projections, making the minutes the committee’s only on-record read on a possible September hike. The June dot plot was hawkish and inflation projections were revised up. September hike odds sit near 58%. A hawkish minutes tone lifts the dollar and pressures EUR/USD; a softer tone would fade hike odds and support a bounce toward 1.15.
Is the Strait of Hormuz oil spike bullish or bearish for EUR/USD?
Bearish for EUR/USD. The mechanism is direct: an oil spike re-arms the US inflation impulse, which supports higher-for-longer rates, a hawkish Fed and dollar upside. That combination presses the euro lower. The current escalation (Iran attacking Hormuz vessels, US strikes on 80-plus Iranian targets, the oil-sale waiver revoked, Iran retaliating on US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait) has WTI at 72.61 and Brent at 76.49 and the US 10-year at 4.50%.
What is the next major event for EUR/USD after the FOMC minutes?
After the 8 July FOMC minutes, the next major event for EUR/USD is US June CPI on 14 July. The desk expects it to show inflation still sticky and elevated, which would lift September hike odds further and press the euro lower. Beyond that, the ECB meeting on 23 July and the FOMC on 28 to 29 July close out the month’s calendar.
Educational analysis only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Manage risk against your own portfolio.
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Related Reading
- US dollar outlook , the full framework behind the higher-low build.
- How to prepare for high-impact data , the desk’s playbook into FOMC, CPI and NFP.
- How to trade NFP , the payrolls read from the desk’s angle.
- Gold price forecast , the yields-vs-haven tension mapped in real time.
Sources: EUR/USD, DXY, WTI, Brent cross-referenced 2026-07-08 08:30 BST against TradingEconomics, Investing.com, FXStreet, Barchart, LiteFinance and RoboForex. US 10-year yield from FRED. FOMC calendar from federalreserve.gov. Strait of Hormuz reporting cross-verified against CNN, CBS, Fox, Axios, TIME, Al Jazeera and TWZ.
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